000 FOPZ11 KNHC 291557 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM ALMA SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012008 1600 UTC THU MAY 29 2008 AT 1600Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 26 56 X X X X TROP DEPRESSION 14 55 32 X X X X TROPICAL STORM 67 19 11 X X X X HURRICANE 19 X 1 X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 18 X 1 X X X X HUR CAT 2 1 X X X X X X HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 65KT 30KT 20KT 0KT 0KT 0KT 0KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P SAN JOSE 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PUERTO CATUCO 34 57 8(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) PUERTO CATUCO 50 14 7(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) PUERTO CATUCO 64 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) AMAPALA 34 58 7(65) 1(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) AMAPALA 50 17 6(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) AMAPALA 64 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CHOLUTECA 34 60 5(65) 1(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) CHOLUTECA 50 20 6(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) CHOLUTECA 64 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MANAGUA 34 63 1(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) MANAGUA 50 13 X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) CABO BLANCO 34 5 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER AVILA