000 FOPZ11 KNHC 170230 PWSEP1 HURRICANE COSME WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062007 0300 UTC TUE JUL 17 2007 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE COSME WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 132.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 1(11) X(11) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 2(13) X(13) BUOY 50004 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) KAHULUI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) BUOY 50002 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) HONOLULU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 155N 1342W 34 93 4(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) 12 155N 1342W 50 49 13(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) 12 155N 1342W 64 15 3(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) 24 159N 1364W 34 6 63(69) 10(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) 24 159N 1364W 50 X 27(27) 8(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) 24 159N 1364W 64 X 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 36 163N 1388W 34 1 10(11) 38(49) 10(59) 1(60) X(60) X(60) 36 163N 1388W 50 X 1( 1) 14(15) 4(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) 36 163N 1388W 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 48 167N 1414W 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 24(32) 9(41) X(41) X(41) 48 167N 1414W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) 48 167N 1414W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 72 180N 1470W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 6(21) X(21) 72 180N 1470W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 72 180N 1470W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 96 185N 1535W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10) 96 185N 1535W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 96 185N 1535W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 120 190N 1590W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 120 190N 1590W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 120 190N 1590W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN