000 FONT15 KNHC 310234 PWSAT5 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FIFTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152022 0300 UTC MON OCT 31 2022 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FIFTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 2(17) X(17) BELIZE CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 38(39) 12(51) X(51) BELIZE CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 8(20) X(20) BELIZE CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 11(21) X(21) PUERTO BARRIOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) GUANAJA 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 38(43) 2(45) X(45) GUANAJA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 2(18) X(18) GUANAJA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) S SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) TEGUCIGALPA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) P SAN JOSE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) GUATEMALA CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) X(10) TAPACHULA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) TAPACHULA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 9(15) 3(18) X(18) X(18) MONTEGO BAY 34 1 6( 7) 3(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) KINGSTON 34 5 6(11) 1(12) X(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN