000 FONT15 KNHC 081457 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM ELSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 1500 UTC THU JUL 08 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ELSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) 22(22) 2(24) X(24) X(24) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) 33(33) 1(34) X(34) X(34) PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) 9( 9) 18(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) 38(38) 4(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) 9( 9) 14(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) 24(24) 5(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) EASTPORT ME 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) 10(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CONCORD NH 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WORCESTER MA 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BOSTON MA 34 X 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) HYANNIS MA 34 X 3( 3) 28(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) NANTUCKET MA 34 X 12(12) 33(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) NANTUCKET MA 50 X 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X 12(12) 19(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) PROVIDENCE RI 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X 7( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X 7( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) HARTFORD CT 34 X 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) NEW LONDON CT 34 X 8( 8) 9(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MONTAUK POINT 34 X 26(26) 12(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) MONTAUK POINT 50 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLIP NY 34 X 12(12) 3(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X 22(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NEWARK NJ 34 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) TRENTON NJ 34 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PHILADELPHIA 34 X 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ATLANTIC CITY 34 1 15(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) BALTIMORE MD 34 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) DOVER DE 34 1 19(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 2 7( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) WASHINGTON DC 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 2 38(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) OCEAN CITY MD 34 5 48(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PAX RIVER NAS 34 10 18(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) WALLOPS CDA 34 12 43(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) WALLOPS CDA 50 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) RICHMOND VA 34 27 4(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) DANVILLE VA 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NORFOLK NAS 34 50 9(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) NORFOLK NAS 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NORFOLK VA 34 50 8(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) OCEANA NAS VA 34 45 9(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) ELIZABETH CTY 34 41 1(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) RALEIGH NC 34 22 X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) ROCKY MT NC 34 54 X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) CAPE HATTERAS 34 13 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) FAYETTEVILLE 34 52 X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) CHERRY PT NC 34 21 X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) NEW RIVER NC 34 12 X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) MOREHEAD CITY 34 14 X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) SURF CITY NC 34 21 X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) WILMINGTON NC 34 24 X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) BALD HEAD ISL 34 9 X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) FLORENCE SC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) LITTLE RIVER 34 30 X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) MYRTLE BEACH 34 37 X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) GEORGETOWN SC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER PASCH