000 FONT15 KNHC 021557 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM EARL SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016 1600 UTC TUE AUG 02 2016 AT 1600Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT TAMPICO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) TUXPAN MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 5(13) X(13) FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 21(25) 1(26) X(26) FRONTERA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) FRONTERA MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) X(10) COZUMEL MX 34 X 4( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) BELIZE CITY 34 X 5( 5) 35(40) 10(50) 1(51) X(51) X(51) BELIZE CITY 50 X X( X) 8( 8) 4(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) BELIZE CITY 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) GUANAJA 34 1 38(39) 21(60) 1(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) GUANAJA 50 X 5( 5) 8(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) GUANAJA 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) PUERTO CABEZAS 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GRAND CAYMAN 34 3 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER AVILA