000 FONT15 KNHC 072032 PWSAT5 HURRICANE ERNESTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012 2100 UTC TUE AUG 07 2012 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 2 4 4 26 NA NA TROP DEPRESSION X 15 12 10 31 NA NA TROPICAL STORM 36 58 70 54 35 NA NA HURRICANE 64 25 15 31 9 NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 60 21 14 26 7 NA NA HUR CAT 2 4 4 1 4 1 NA NA HUR CAT 3 1 1 X 2 X NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X X NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X X NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 70KT 45KT 55KT 65KT 35KT NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LA PESCO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) TAMPICO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) X(12) X(12) TUXPAN MX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 20(26) X(26) X(26) TUXPAN MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) TUXPAN MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 25(42) X(42) X(42) VERACRUZ MX 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) X(12) X(12) VERACRUZ MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FRONTERA MX 34 X 2( 2) 11(13) 7(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) FRONTERA MX 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FRONTERA MX 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MERIDA MX 34 2 34(36) 4(40) X(40) 1(41) X(41) X(41) MERIDA MX 50 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MERIDA MX 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) COZUMEL MX 34 62 1(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) BELIZE 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH