000 FONT14 KNHC 122031 PWSAT4 HURRICANE IKE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 47 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008 2100 UTC FRI SEP 12 2008 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS ...105 MPH...165 KM/HR. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X 30 40 NA NA NA TROP DEPRESSION X 2 56 58 NA NA NA TROPICAL STORM 5 72 15 2 NA NA NA HURRICANE 95 26 X X NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 25 24 X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 2 47 2 X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 3 22 X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 4 1 X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 95KT 65KT 30KT 30KT NA NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GULFPORT MS 34 5 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BURAS LA 34 10 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) GFMX 280N 890W 34 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) JACKSON MS 34 3 6( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 18 4(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) GFMX 280N 910W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 280N 910W 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BATON ROUGE LA 34 52 3(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) NEW IBERIA LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NEW IBERIA LA 50 9 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) GFMX 280N 930W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 280N 930W 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 280N 930W 64 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SHREVEPORT LA 34 20 38(58) 5(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) SHREVEPORT LA 50 X 9( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 79 11(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) PORT ARTHUR TX 64 37 18(55) 1(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) GALVESTON TX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GALVESTON TX 50 93 4(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) GALVESTON TX 64 75 11(86) 1(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) HOUSTON TX 34 90 8(98) 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) HOUSTON TX 50 66 24(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) HOUSTON TX 64 21 38(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) AUSTIN TX 34 19 17(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) AUSTIN TX 50 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 10 7(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) FREEPORT TX 34 95 3(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) FREEPORT TX 50 81 6(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) FREEPORT TX 64 44 10(54) 1(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) GFMX 280N 950W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 280N 950W 50 75 X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) GFMX 280N 950W 64 32 X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) PORT O CONNOR 34 71 2(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) PORT O CONNOR 50 12 2(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) PORT O CONNOR 64 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 20 2(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) GFMX 270N 960W 34 43 1(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) GFMX 270N 960W 50 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 5 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GFMX 250N 960W 34 5 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER AVILA