000 FONT14 KNHC 112047 PWSAT4 HURRICANE IKE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 43 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008 2100 UTC THU SEP 11 2008 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS ...100 MPH...160 KM/HR. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X 1 2 55 NA NA TROP DEPRESSION X X 3 7 37 NA NA TROPICAL STORM 1 3 23 63 8 NA NA HURRICANE 99 97 73 29 1 NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 25 19 22 19 X NA NA HUR CAT 2 56 45 18 3 X NA NA HUR CAT 3 17 30 25 5 X NA NA HUR CAT 4 1 3 8 2 X NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X 1 X X NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 90KT 95KT 105KT 65KT 30KT NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 290N 850W 34 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PENSACOLA FL 34 4 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GFMX 290N 870W 34 14 3(17) X(17) X(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) MOBILE AL 34 7 5(12) 1(13) 1(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) GULFPORT MS 34 13 10(23) 1(24) 1(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) BURAS LA 34 40 12(52) 1(53) 1(54) 1(55) X(55) X(55) BURAS LA 50 2 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GFMX 280N 890W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 280N 890W 50 50 2(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) GFMX 280N 890W 64 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) JACKSON MS 34 X 4( 4) 3( 7) 5(12) 4(16) X(16) X(16) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 22 18(40) 4(44) 2(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 1 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GFMX 280N 910W 34 87 9(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) GFMX 280N 910W 50 73 12(85) 1(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) GFMX 280N 910W 64 15 31(46) 1(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) BATON ROUGE LA 34 13 24(37) 8(45) 3(48) 1(49) X(49) X(49) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BATON ROUGE LA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) NEW IBERIA LA 34 18 35(53) 10(63) 2(65) 1(66) X(66) X(66) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X 14(14) 6(20) 1(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) NEW IBERIA LA 64 X 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GFMX 280N 930W 34 50 42(92) 5(97) 1(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) GFMX 280N 930W 50 12 69(81) 10(91) X(91) 1(92) X(92) X(92) GFMX 280N 930W 64 1 50(51) 19(70) 2(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X 5( 5) 12(17) 25(42) 10(52) X(52) X(52) SHREVEPORT LA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 6(15) X(15) X(15) SHREVEPORT LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 6 36(42) 37(79) 7(86) 1(87) X(87) X(87) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X 12(12) 36(48) 9(57) 2(59) X(59) X(59) PORT ARTHUR TX 64 X 1( 1) 19(20) 8(28) 2(30) X(30) X(30) GALVESTON TX 34 6 39(45) 40(85) 6(91) 1(92) X(92) X(92) GALVESTON TX 50 X 17(17) 49(66) 10(76) 1(77) X(77) X(77) GALVESTON TX 64 X 2( 2) 33(35) 10(45) 2(47) X(47) X(47) HOUSTON TX 34 2 26(28) 45(73) 13(86) 1(87) X(87) X(87) HOUSTON TX 50 X 4( 4) 43(47) 15(62) 2(64) X(64) X(64) HOUSTON TX 64 X 1( 1) 14(15) 14(29) 2(31) X(31) X(31) AUSTIN TX 34 X 4( 4) 17(21) 14(35) 2(37) X(37) X(37) AUSTIN TX 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) AUSTIN TX 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 X 2( 2) 14(16) 7(23) 2(25) X(25) X(25) SAN ANTONIO TX 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) FREEPORT TX 34 5 34(39) 40(79) 8(87) 1(88) X(88) X(88) FREEPORT TX 50 X 12(12) 45(57) 12(69) 1(70) X(70) X(70) FREEPORT TX 64 X 2( 2) 23(25) 11(36) 1(37) X(37) X(37) GFMX 280N 950W 34 8 46(54) 28(82) 4(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) GFMX 280N 950W 50 X 26(26) 35(61) 5(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) GFMX 280N 950W 64 X 5( 5) 27(32) 6(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) PORT O CONNOR 34 1 21(22) 35(57) 7(64) 1(65) X(65) X(65) PORT O CONNOR 50 X 3( 3) 24(27) 8(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) PORT O CONNOR 64 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 5(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X 9( 9) 17(26) 6(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) CORPUS CHRISTI 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) CORPUS CHRISTI 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 270N 960W 34 4 21(25) 21(46) 4(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) GFMX 270N 960W 50 X 4( 4) 12(16) 3(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) GFMX 270N 960W 64 X X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X 5( 5) 6(11) 3(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) BROWNSVILLE TX 50 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 250N 960W 34 2 7( 9) 5(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN