000 FONT13 KNHC 141436 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM PAULA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010 1500 UTC THU OCT 14 2010 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAULA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 2 8 11 35 NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 4 17 22 19 37 NA NA TROPICAL STORM 90 73 60 53 26 NA NA HURRICANE 6 8 10 16 3 NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 6 7 9 13 3 NA NA HUR CAT 2 X 1 1 2 X NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X X 1 X NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X X NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X X NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 50KT 40KT 30KT 20KT 20KT NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) W PALM BEACH 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MIAMI FL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MARATHON FL 34 X 5( 5) 6(11) 4(15) 2(17) X(17) X(17) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) KEY WEST FL 34 1 9(10) 6(16) 3(19) 2(21) X(21) X(21) KEY WEST FL 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MARCO ISLAND 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) FT MYERS FL 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) VENICE FL 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ANDROS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HAVANA 34 39 25(64) 4(68) 2(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) HAVANA 50 6 10(16) 2(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) HAVANA 64 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ISLE OF PINES 34 2 9(11) 5(16) 2(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) ISLE OF PINES 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CIENFUEGOS 34 X 7( 7) 20(27) 6(33) 1(34) X(34) X(34) CIENFUEGOS 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CIENFUEGOS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) CAMAGUEY 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) 4(14) X(14) X(14) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER AVILA