000 FONT13 KNHC 160854 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM KARL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010 0900 UTC THU SEP 16 2010 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X 1 1 22 44 NA TROP DEPRESSION 2 3 4 2 33 17 NA TROPICAL STORM 87 68 42 40 34 19 NA HURRICANE 11 29 53 57 11 20 NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 11 26 42 41 8 12 NA HUR CAT 2 X 2 8 11 2 5 NA HUR CAT 3 X 1 3 4 1 2 NA HUR CAT 4 X X X 1 X X NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 55KT 60KT 70KT 75KT 35KT 20KT NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 4(11) 1(12) X(12) LA PESCA MX 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 8(13) 10(23) 1(24) X(24) LA PESCA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LA PESCA MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) TAMPICO MX 34 X 2( 2) 15(17) 30(47) 12(59) 1(60) X(60) TAMPICO MX 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) 8(27) 1(28) X(28) TAMPICO MX 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 4(11) X(11) X(11) TUXPAN MX 34 X 3( 3) 31(34) 26(60) 10(70) 1(71) X(71) TUXPAN MX 50 X X( X) 9( 9) 19(28) 7(35) X(35) X(35) TUXPAN MX 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 3(14) X(14) X(14) VERACRUZ MX 34 X 3( 3) 11(14) 6(20) 4(24) X(24) X(24) VERACRUZ MX 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) VERACRUZ MX 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) FRONTERA MX 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN