000 FONT13 KNHC 150838 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM KARL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010 0900 UTC WED SEP 15 2010 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 7 8 7 15 43 NA TROP DEPRESSION 3 33 18 6 16 31 NA TROPICAL STORM 91 51 65 54 38 19 NA HURRICANE 6 9 8 33 32 8 NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 6 9 8 27 20 4 NA HUR CAT 2 X 1 1 5 8 2 NA HUR CAT 3 X X X 2 4 2 NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 50KT 30KT 45KT 60KT 75KT 25KT NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) X(11) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) 3(19) X(19) GFMX 250N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) LA PESCA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 21(23) 9(32) X(32) LA PESCA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) LA PESCA MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) TAMPICO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 37(40) 10(50) X(50) TAMPICO MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 7(21) X(21) TAMPICO MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) TUXPAN MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 36(40) 7(47) X(47) TUXPAN MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 6(19) X(19) TUXPAN MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 15(19) 2(21) X(21) VERACRUZ MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) VERACRUZ MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) FRONTERA MX 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) MERIDA MX 34 1 12(13) 3(16) 1(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) $$ FORECASTER PASCH