000 FONT13 KNHC 210852 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032008 0900 UTC MON JUL 21 2008 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 1 3 6 10 X X TROP DEPRESSION 7 15 20 23 19 X X TROPICAL STORM 90 79 69 61 55 X X HURRICANE 2 5 9 11 16 X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 2 5 8 9 13 X X HUR CAT 2 X X 1 2 2 X X HUR CAT 3 X X X X 1 X X HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 45KT 45KT 45KT 45KT 45KT 0KT 0KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) X(17) X(17) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CAPE RACE NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) X(18) X(18) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ILE ST PIERRE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) X(11) X(11) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) X( 9) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 8(25) X(25) X(25) EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) EDDY POINT NS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 11(21) X(21) X(21) SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SYDNEY NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 30(32) 12(44) X(44) X(44) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 6(14) X(14) X(14) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 16(22) 4(26) X(26) X(26) HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HALIFAX NS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) 10(10) 5(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) YARMOUTH NS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HYANNIS MA 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NANTUCKET MA 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH