000 FONT12 KNHC 162047 PWSAT2 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TWENTY-TWO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL222023 2100 UTC THU NOV 16 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TWENTY-TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) 19(19) 9(28) X(28) X(28) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 12(21) X(21) X(21) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MONTEGO BAY 34 X 1( 1) 15(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) KINGSTON 34 X 1( 1) 16(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BERG