000 FONT12 KNHC 050841 PWSAT2 HURRICANE KATIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011 0900 UTC MON SEP 05 2011 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...160 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X X X X 2 7 TROP DEPRESSION X X X X 1 3 12 TROPICAL STORM 1 2 4 4 14 30 51 HURRICANE 99 98 96 95 85 66 30 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 26 25 21 21 34 39 23 HUR CAT 2 56 44 36 30 27 18 5 HUR CAT 3 15 25 32 32 19 7 1 HUR CAT 4 1 4 6 11 5 2 X HUR CAT 5 X X 1 1 X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 90KT 95KT 100KT 105KT 100KT 90KT 75KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) BOSTON MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 11(17) HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) HYANNIS MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 15(22) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) PROVIDENCE RI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) PROVIDENCE RI 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 9(16) MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) MONTAUK POINT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) NEW YORK CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 5(13) ATLANTIC CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 4(15) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) OCEAN CITY MD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 3(12) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 3(13) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 1(17) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 1(12) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 12(23) 7(30) 3(33) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN