000 FONT12 KNHC 042047 PWSAT2 HURRICANE KATIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011 2100 UTC SUN SEP 04 2011 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X X X X 1 3 TROP DEPRESSION X X X X 1 1 8 TROPICAL STORM X 1 4 4 10 18 39 HURRICANE 99 99 96 95 89 80 51 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 10 15 22 22 29 35 32 HUR CAT 2 57 40 36 31 29 25 13 HUR CAT 3 31 36 31 31 24 16 5 HUR CAT 4 2 7 6 11 7 4 1 HUR CAT 5 X 1 1 1 1 X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 95KT 100KT 100KT 105KT 105KT 100KT 90KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) NEW YORK CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) NORFOLK NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 20(27) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 15(21) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) WILMINGTON NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 5(18) 4(22) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER BERG