000 FONT12 KNHC 041452 PWSAT2 HURRICANE KATIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011 1500 UTC SUN SEP 04 2011 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...160 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X X X X X 2 TROP DEPRESSION X X X X 1 1 4 TROPICAL STORM X 1 4 4 10 12 33 HURRICANE 99 99 96 95 89 86 61 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 10 15 22 22 29 31 35 HUR CAT 2 57 40 36 31 29 27 16 HUR CAT 3 31 36 31 31 24 22 9 HUR CAT 4 2 7 6 11 7 6 1 HUR CAT 5 X 1 1 1 1 1 X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 95KT 100KT 100KT 105KT 105KT 105KT 95KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 17(20) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) WILMINGTON NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 5(11) 6(17) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) $$ FORECASTER BERG