000 FONT12 KNHC 021453 PWSAT2 HURRICANE KATIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011 1500 UTC FRI SEP 02 2011 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X X X X 1 1 TROP DEPRESSION X 1 1 1 2 1 1 TROPICAL STORM 47 36 29 26 19 17 18 HURRICANE 53 63 70 72 79 81 80 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 49 51 49 43 38 35 33 HUR CAT 2 3 9 15 19 24 25 25 HUR CAT 3 1 2 5 9 14 17 19 HUR CAT 4 X X 1 2 3 4 3 HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X 1 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 65KT 70KT 75KT 80KT 90KT 95KT 100KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA/STEWART