000 FONT12 KNHC 011450 PWSAT2 HURRICANE KATIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011 1500 UTC THU SEP 01 2011 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X X X X X 1 TROP DEPRESSION X 1 1 X 1 1 1 TROPICAL STORM 26 22 12 10 11 10 16 HURRICANE 74 77 87 90 88 89 83 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 67 59 45 32 31 29 33 HUR CAT 2 5 14 28 28 28 28 24 HUR CAT 3 1 4 12 23 23 25 21 HUR CAT 4 X 1 2 6 6 7 5 HUR CAT 5 X X X 1 1 1 1 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 70KT 75KT 85KT 95KT 100KT 105KT 105KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PONCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) SAN JUAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) SAINT CROIX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 4(15) SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) SAINT MAARTEN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 2(11) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) 2(15) BARBUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) BARBUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 1(11) ANTIGUA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) ANTIGUA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI