000 FONT12 KNHC 180238 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM BRET WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022011 0300 UTC MON JUL 18 2011 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BRET WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 1 1 2 6 11 15 24 TROP DEPRESSION 15 9 14 23 28 33 34 TROPICAL STORM 82 78 70 60 53 47 39 HURRICANE 2 13 14 12 8 6 3 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 2 11 12 10 7 5 3 HUR CAT 2 X 1 2 2 1 1 X HUR CAT 3 X X 1 X X X X HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 40KT 50KT 50KT 45KT 40KT 35KT 30KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PATRICK AFB 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FT PIERCE FL 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) W PALM BEACH 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 1(11) GRAND BAHAMA 34 2 3( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN/BERG 000 FONT12 KNHC 180238 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM BRET WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022011 0300 UTC MON JUL 18 2011 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BRET WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 1 1 2 6 11 15 24 TROP DEPRESSION 15 9 14 23 28 33 34 TROPICAL STORM 82 78 70 60 53 47 39 HURRICANE 2 13 14 12 8 6 3 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 2 11 12 10 7 5 3 HUR CAT 2 X 1 2 2 1 1 X HUR CAT 3 X X 1 X X X X HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 40KT 50KT 50KT 45KT 40KT 35KT 30KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PATRICK AFB 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FT PIERCE FL 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) W PALM BEACH 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 1(11) GRAND BAHAMA 34 2 3( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN/BERG