000 FONT12 KNHC 172034 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022011 2100 UTC SUN JUL 17 2011 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 1 2 2 3 6 10 15 TROP DEPRESSION 16 16 14 17 19 24 31 TROPICAL STORM 81 75 70 63 58 55 46 HURRICANE 2 7 14 17 17 11 7 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 2 6 12 14 14 9 6 HUR CAT 2 X 1 2 3 2 2 1 HUR CAT 3 X X 1 1 1 X X HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 40KT 45KT 50KT 50KT 50KT 45KT 40KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 2(11) 1(12) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 1(11) 1(12) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) X(10) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAVANNAH GA 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MAYPORT NS 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) JACKSONVILLE 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) DAYTONA BEACH 34 1 2( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) ORLANDO FL 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) X(10) COCOA BEACH FL 34 3 4( 7) 5(12) 1(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) PATRICK AFB 34 3 4( 7) 4(11) 2(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) FT PIERCE FL 34 6 4(10) 5(15) 1(16) 2(18) X(18) X(18) W PALM BEACH 34 6 4(10) 4(14) 1(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) MIAMI FL 34 2 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MARATHON FL 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MARCO ISLAND 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FT MYERS FL 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) VENICE FL 34 X 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TAMPA FL 34 X 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 4(16) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 28 13(41) 3(44) 1(45) 1(46) X(46) X(46) GRAND BAHAMA 50 2 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 2 3( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) ANDROS 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAN SALVADOR 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH 000 FONT12 KNHC 172034 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022011 2100 UTC SUN JUL 17 2011 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 1 2 2 3 6 10 15 TROP DEPRESSION 16 16 14 17 19 24 31 TROPICAL STORM 81 75 70 63 58 55 46 HURRICANE 2 7 14 17 17 11 7 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 2 6 12 14 14 9 6 HUR CAT 2 X 1 2 3 2 2 1 HUR CAT 3 X X 1 1 1 X X HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 40KT 45KT 50KT 50KT 50KT 45KT 40KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 2(11) 1(12) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 1(11) 1(12) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) X(10) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAVANNAH GA 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MAYPORT NS 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) JACKSONVILLE 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) DAYTONA BEACH 34 1 2( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) ORLANDO FL 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) X(10) COCOA BEACH FL 34 3 4( 7) 5(12) 1(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) PATRICK AFB 34 3 4( 7) 4(11) 2(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) FT PIERCE FL 34 6 4(10) 5(15) 1(16) 2(18) X(18) X(18) W PALM BEACH 34 6 4(10) 4(14) 1(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) MIAMI FL 34 2 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MARATHON FL 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MARCO ISLAND 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FT MYERS FL 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) VENICE FL 34 X 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TAMPA FL 34 X 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 4(16) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 28 13(41) 3(44) 1(45) 1(46) X(46) X(46) GRAND BAHAMA 50 2 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 2 3( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) ANDROS 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAN SALVADOR 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH