000 FONT12 KNHC 040832 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM EARL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 40 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 0900 UTC SAT SEP 04 2010 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 41.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 4 5 10 17 NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 2 29 26 28 32 NA NA TROPICAL STORM 84 64 61 56 44 NA NA HURRICANE 14 4 7 7 8 NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 14 3 6 5 6 NA NA HUR CAT 2 1 X 1 1 2 NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X X NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X X NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X X NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 55KT 45KT 45KT 40KT 35KT NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ILE ST PIERRE 34 1 12(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) BURGEO NFLD 34 2 29(31) X(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) BURGEO NFLD 50 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PTX BASQUES 34 6 51(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) PTX BASQUES 50 X 18(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) EDDY POINT NS 34 69 9(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) EDDY POINT NS 50 20 19(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) EDDY POINT NS 64 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SYDNEY NS 34 33 28(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) SYDNEY NS 50 1 19(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) SABLE ISLAND 34 31 3(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) HALIFAX NS 34 97 X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) HALIFAX NS 50 63 1(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) HALIFAX NS 64 6 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) YARMOUTH NS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) YARMOUTH NS 50 75 X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) MONCTON NB 34 60 2(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) MONCTON NB 50 21 1(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) ST JOHN NB 34 54 X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) ST JOHN NB 50 17 X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) EASTPORT ME 34 31 X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) EASTPORT ME 50 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BAR HARBOR ME 34 8 X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) HYANNIS MA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NANTUCKET MA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER STEWART