000 FONT12 KNHC 081032 PWSAT2 HURRICANE PALOMA SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172008 1030 UTC SAT NOV 08 2008 AT 1030Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PALOMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 115 KTS...135 MPH...215 KM/HR. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X X 11 27 41 49 TROP DEPRESSION X X 1 31 33 32 27 TROPICAL STORM X 4 19 50 35 25 22 HURRICANE 99 96 80 8 5 3 2 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 X 22 26 7 4 2 2 HUR CAT 2 3 38 27 1 1 X X HUR CAT 3 59 32 22 1 X X X HUR CAT 4 35 4 4 X X X X HUR CAT 5 2 1 1 X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 115KT 100KT 70KT 45KT 35KT 25KT 20KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) MIAMI FL 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) MARATHON FL 34 1 X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 2( 7) KEY WEST FL 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 2( 6) MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 2( 4) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) 4(11) 1(12) 2(14) ANDROS 34 1 3( 4) 10(14) 3(17) 3(20) 2(22) 2(24) ANDROS 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) ANDROS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) GREAT EXUMA 34 X 4( 4) 19(23) 3(26) 5(31) 1(32) X(32) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) 1(10) GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN SALVADOR 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 2(11) 6(17) 2(19) 1(20) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MAYAGUANA 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) 5(14) 1(15) 1(16) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) HAVANA 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 2( 7) ISLE OF PINES 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) CIENFUEGOS 34 6 7(13) 4(17) 2(19) 1(20) 1(21) 1(22) CIENFUEGOS 50 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) CIENFUEGOS 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CAMAGUEY 34 20 54(74) 8(82) 1(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) CAMAGUEY 50 2 36(38) 15(53) 1(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) CAMAGUEY 64 X 14(14) 11(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 1 6( 7) 17(24) 4(28) 3(31) 1(32) X(32) GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GUANTANAMO BAY 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GRAND CAYMAN 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GRAND CAYMAN 50 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) MONTEGO BAY 34 12 13(25) 6(31) 1(32) 1(33) 1(34) 1(35) MONTEGO BAY 50 1 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MONTEGO BAY 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) KINGSTON 34 2 4( 6) 7(13) 1(14) 2(16) X(16) 1(17) KINGSTON 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) LES CAYES 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 2( 4) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN