000 FONT12 KNHC 011454 PWSAT2 HURRICANE GUSTAV WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 32 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008 1500 UTC MON SEP 01 2008 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 95 KTS...110 MPH...175 KM/HR. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 5 21 39 59 68 76 TROP DEPRESSION X 34 48 36 25 19 14 TROPICAL STORM 29 55 26 21 11 7 5 HURRICANE 72 5 5 4 5 6 6 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 57 2 2 1 1 1 1 HUR CAT 2 9 1 1 1 1 2 1 HUR CAT 3 5 2 2 1 2 2 2 HUR CAT 4 X X 1 1 1 2 1 HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 70KT 40KT 30KT 25KT 20KT 20KT 20KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PENSACOLA FL 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) GFMX 290N 870W 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) MOBILE AL 34 20 2(22) X(22) X(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) GULFPORT MS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GULFPORT MS 50 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BURAS LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BURAS LA 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BURAS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GFMX 280N 890W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) JACKSON MS 34 30 2(32) X(32) 1(33) X(33) 1(34) X(34) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 14 X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) GFMX 280N 910W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 280N 910W 50 9 X( 9) X( 9) 1(10) 1(11) X(11) 1(12) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) BATON ROUGE LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BATON ROUGE LA 50 92 X(92) X(92) 1(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) BATON ROUGE LA 64 29 1(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) NEW IBERIA LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NEW IBERIA LA 50 98 X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) 1(99) NEW IBERIA LA 64 67 X(67) 1(68) X(68) X(68) 1(69) X(69) GFMX 280N 930W 34 23 1(24) 2(26) X(26) 3(29) 2(31) X(31) GFMX 280N 930W 50 2 X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) SHREVEPORT LA 34 26 14(40) 3(43) 2(45) 1(46) X(46) 1(47) SHREVEPORT LA 50 1 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 62 6(68) 1(69) 1(70) 1(71) 1(72) X(72) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 7 5(12) 1(13) 1(14) 2(16) 1(17) X(17) PORT ARTHUR TX 64 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GALVESTON TX 34 15 5(20) 2(22) 1(23) 3(26) 2(28) X(28) GALVESTON TX 50 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) GALVESTON TX 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HOUSTON TX 34 10 6(16) 2(18) 2(20) 3(23) 1(24) 1(25) HOUSTON TX 50 1 X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) HOUSTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) AUSTIN TX 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) FREEPORT TX 34 7 4(11) 1(12) 2(14) 3(17) 2(19) X(19) FREEPORT TX 50 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) FREEPORT TX 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) GFMX 280N 950W 34 4 3( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) 4(14) 1(15) 1(16) GFMX 280N 950W 50 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) GFMX 280N 950W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) PORT O CONNOR 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) 2( 7) 4(11) 1(12) 1(13) PORT O CONNOR 50 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) PORT O CONNOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) GFMX 270N 960W 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) GFMX 270N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) GFMX 270N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN