000 FONT12 KNHC 010842 PWSAT2 HURRICANE GUSTAV WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 31 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008 0900 UTC MON SEP 01 2008 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/HR. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 1 14 38 58 67 74 TROP DEPRESSION X 8 43 35 24 18 13 TROPICAL STORM X 70 34 19 11 9 7 HURRICANE 99 21 9 8 8 7 7 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 5 11 3 2 1 1 X HUR CAT 2 48 5 2 2 2 1 2 HUR CAT 3 43 5 3 2 2 2 2 HUR CAT 4 3 1 1 2 1 2 2 HUR CAT 5 X X X X X 1 1 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 100KT 55KT 35KT 25KT 20KT 20KT 20KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT APALACHICOLA 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) GFMX 290N 850W 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) PANAMA CITY FL 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) MONTGOMERY AL 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PENSACOLA FL 34 17 3(20) X(20) 1(21) 1(22) X(22) 1(23) GFMX 290N 870W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 290N 870W 50 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) MOBILE AL 34 55 1(56) 1(57) X(57) 1(58) 1(59) 1(60) MOBILE AL 50 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) GULFPORT MS 34 85 1(86) X(86) X(86) 1(87) X(87) X(87) GULFPORT MS 50 18 1(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) 1(20) X(20) GULFPORT MS 64 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) BURAS LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BURAS LA 50 96 X(96) 1(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) BURAS LA 64 54 1(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) GFMX 280N 890W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 280N 890W 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 280N 890W 64 67 X(67) 1(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) JACKSON MS 34 36 10(46) 1(47) 1(48) 1(49) X(49) 1(50) JACKSON MS 50 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 98 X(98) 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 87 2(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) 1(90) X(90) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 43 3(46) X(46) X(46) 1(47) X(47) X(47) GFMX 280N 910W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 280N 910W 50 30 1(31) X(31) 1(32) X(32) 1(33) X(33) GFMX 280N 910W 64 5 X( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) BATON ROUGE LA 34 94 4(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) BATON ROUGE LA 50 73 13(86) 1(87) X(87) 1(88) X(88) X(88) BATON ROUGE LA 64 21 25(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) 1(47) X(47) NEW IBERIA LA 34 95 3(98) 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NEW IBERIA LA 50 68 18(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) 1(87) NEW IBERIA LA 64 16 36(52) 1(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) 1(54) GFMX 280N 930W 34 34 8(42) 1(43) 1(44) X(44) 1(45) X(45) GFMX 280N 930W 50 3 2( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) GFMX 280N 930W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) SHREVEPORT LA 34 6 26(32) 6(38) 2(40) 2(42) X(42) 1(43) SHREVEPORT LA 50 X 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 30 29(59) 3(62) 1(63) 1(64) X(64) 1(65) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 2 10(12) 3(15) 1(16) 1(17) 1(18) X(18) PORT ARTHUR TX 64 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) GALVESTON TX 34 7 16(23) 4(27) 2(29) 1(30) 1(31) X(31) GALVESTON TX 50 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) GALVESTON TX 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) HOUSTON TX 34 4 13(17) 5(22) 2(24) 2(26) 1(27) X(27) HOUSTON TX 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) HOUSTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) AUSTIN TX 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) FREEPORT TX 34 4 8(12) 3(15) 2(17) 3(20) 1(21) 1(22) FREEPORT TX 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) FREEPORT TX 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) GFMX 280N 950W 34 4 5( 9) 3(12) 2(14) 3(17) 1(18) 1(19) GFMX 280N 950W 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) GFMX 280N 950W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) PORT O CONNOR 34 2 3( 5) 2( 7) 3(10) 2(12) 2(14) 1(15) PORT O CONNOR 50 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) PORT O CONNOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) GFMX 270N 960W 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) GFMX 270N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) GFMX 270N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER PASCH