000 FONT12 KNHC 292052 PWSAT2 HURRICANE GUSTAV WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008 2100 UTC FRI AUG 29 2008 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X X X 3 10 33 TROP DEPRESSION X 1 X X 5 11 20 TROPICAL STORM 9 10 5 2 16 27 24 HURRICANE 91 89 95 98 76 52 23 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 79 34 18 12 20 20 8 HUR CAT 2 10 38 30 21 21 13 5 HUR CAT 3 2 16 38 37 22 12 6 HUR CAT 4 X 2 8 23 11 6 4 HUR CAT 5 X 1 1 4 2 1 1 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 75KT 90KT 100KT 110KT 105KT 85KT 55KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) W PALM BEACH 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) MIAMI FL 34 X 4( 4) 7(11) 2(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) MARATHON FL 34 2 13(15) 14(29) 3(32) 1(33) X(33) X(33) MARATHON FL 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) KEY WEST FL 34 2 20(22) 24(46) 2(48) 1(49) 1(50) X(50) KEY WEST FL 50 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MARCO ISLAND 34 X 5( 5) 14(19) 6(25) 1(26) X(26) 1(27) MARCO ISLAND 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MARCO ISLAND 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) FT MYERS FL 34 X 2( 2) 12(14) 7(21) 2(23) X(23) X(23) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) VENICE FL 34 X 1( 1) 12(13) 9(22) 3(25) 1(26) 1(27) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) 4(17) 1(18) 1(19) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 7(14) 2(16) X(16) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) 3(17) 2(19) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) TALLAHASSEE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) 3(18) 2(20) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 16(25) 4(29) 1(30) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 17(33) 3(36) 2(38) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 2(12) X(12) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 20(27) 4(31) 2(33) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) 1(11) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) 1(11) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 6(16) 2(18) MONTGOMERY AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) MONTGOMERY AL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 28(33) 8(41) 2(43) PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 4(14) 2(16) PENSACOLA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 33(51) 6(57) 1(58) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 18(21) 4(25) 2(27) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 3(13) 2(15) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 29(33) 11(44) 3(47) MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 6(17) 2(19) MOBILE AL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 33(37) 13(50) 2(52) GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 9(23) 2(25) GULFPORT MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) 1(12) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 42(49) 13(62) 2(64) BURAS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) 10(34) 2(36) BURAS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 6(19) 2(21) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 44(63) 7(70) 2(72) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 30(36) 7(43) 2(45) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) 4(24) 2(26) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 16(31) 4(35) JACKSON MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 2(10) JACKSON MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 35(39) 17(56) 3(59) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 10(26) 2(28) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) 1(14) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 38(45) 14(59) 2(61) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 11(33) 2(35) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 8(20) 1(21) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 28(30) 20(50) 4(54) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 11(21) 2(23) BATON ROUGE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 28(29) 20(49) 4(53) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 12(22) 3(25) NEW IBERIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 2(12) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) 15(39) 4(43) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 9(19) 2(21) GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) 2(13) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 17(21) 5(26) SHREVEPORT LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 18(32) 5(37) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 2(16) PORT ARTHUR TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 15(25) 5(30) GALVESTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 3(13) GALVESTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 13(20) 5(25) HOUSTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 4(11) HOUSTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) AUSTIN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 4(12) AUSTIN TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) AUSTIN TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) SAN ANTONIO TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 13(20) 5(25) FREEPORT TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 3(11) FREEPORT TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 11(21) 4(25) GFMX 280N 950W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 3(12) GFMX 280N 950W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) 5(18) PORT O CONNOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) PORT O CONNOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 3(11) CORPUS CHRISTI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) CORPUS CHRISTI 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) 3(16) GFMX 270N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) GFMX 270N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) BROWNSVILLE TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) BROWNSVILLE TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) GFMX 250N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) GFMX 250N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) LA PESCO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) COZUMEL MX 34 X 4( 4) 6(10) 3(13) 1(14) X(14) 1(15) COZUMEL MX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) COZUMEL MX 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ANDROS 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 2 24(26) 32(58) 4(62) 1(63) 1(64) X(64) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X 4( 4) 23(27) 4(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X 1( 1) 13(14) 3(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) HAVANA 34 5 62(67) 16(83) 2(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) HAVANA 50 X 24(24) 21(45) 1(46) 1(47) X(47) X(47) HAVANA 64 X 6( 6) 13(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) ISLE OF PINES 34 18 71(89) 3(92) 1(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) ISLE OF PINES 50 1 63(64) 10(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) ISLE OF PINES 64 X 35(35) 11(46) X(46) 1(47) X(47) X(47) CIENFUEGOS 34 43 29(72) 2(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) 1(75) CIENFUEGOS 50 3 14(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) CIENFUEGOS 64 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CAMAGUEY 34 9 4(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) GRAND CAYMAN 34 71 4(75) 1(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) GRAND CAYMAN 50 14 6(20) X(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) GRAND CAYMAN 64 4 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MONTEGO BAY 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) KINGSTON 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER KNABB