000 FONT12 KNHC 070234 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 0300 UTC MON JUL 07 2008 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X X X 1 2 3 TROP DEPRESSION X 1 2 3 4 6 9 TROPICAL STORM 63 26 33 38 37 35 37 HURRICANE 37 73 66 59 58 57 52 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 35 59 48 39 35 33 29 HUR CAT 2 1 11 13 14 13 13 13 HUR CAT 3 X 2 3 5 7 8 8 HUR CAT 4 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 60KT 70KT 70KT 70KT 70KT 70KT 70KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 11(21) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) PONCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) SAN JUAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER AVILA