000 FONT12 KNHC 110833 PWSAT2 SUBTROPICAL STORM OLGA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172007 0900 UTC TUE DEC 11 2007 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM OLGA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GRAND TURK 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X 2( 2) 8(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) KINGSTON 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) LES CAYES 34 X 5( 5) 7(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 1 15(16) 3(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) CAPE BEATA 34 1 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PUERTO PLATA 34 14 16(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) SANTO DOMINGO 34 32 9(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) PONCE 34 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAN JUAN 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 185N 694W 34 37 7(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) 12 185N 694W 50 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 12 185N 694W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 24 185N 728W 34 X 12(12) 4(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) 24 185N 728W 50 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 24 185N 728W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 36 185N 761W 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 3(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) 36 185N 761W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 36 185N 761W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 48 185N 794W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 48 185N 794W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 48 185N 794W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 72 185N 835W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 72 185N 835W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 72 185N 835W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 40 30 30 25 25 0 0 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER KNABB/MAINELLI