000 FONT12 KNHC 290231 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM KAREN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122007 0300 UTC SAT SEP 29 2007 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 170N 532W 34 33 22(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) 12 170N 532W 50 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 12 170N 532W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 24 182N 549W 34 2 20(22) 8(30) 1(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) 24 182N 549W 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 24 182N 549W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 36 195N 563W 34 X 5( 5) 10(15) 6(21) 2(23) 1(24) X(24) 36 195N 563W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 36 195N 563W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 48 207N 576W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 6(18) 1(19) 1(20) 48 207N 576W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 48 207N 576W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 72 230N 600W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 3(15) 2(17) 72 230N 600W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 72 230N 600W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 96 245N 625W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) 2(14) 96 245N 625W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 96 245N 625W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 120 255N 645W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) 120 255N 645W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 120 255N 645W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 35 30 25 25 30 30 30 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE