000 FONT12 KNHC 271506 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM KAREN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122007 1500 UTC THU SEP 27 2007 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ...THERE ARE NO LOCATIONS WITH TOTAL ACCUMLATED 5 DAY PROBABILITIES GREATER THAN 2 PERCENT... - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 147N 487W 34 73 11(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) 12 147N 487W 50 30 13(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) 12 147N 487W 64 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 24 160N 506W 34 5 38(43) 11(54) 2(56) 1(57) X(57) X(57) 24 160N 506W 50 X 16(16) 6(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) 24 160N 506W 64 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 36 170N 520W 34 1 10(11) 25(36) 7(43) 2(45) 1(46) X(46) 36 170N 520W 50 X 2( 2) 10(12) 5(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) 36 170N 520W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 48 180N 533W 34 X 2( 2) 13(15) 15(30) 6(36) 2(38) 1(39) 48 180N 533W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 3(12) 1(13) X(13) 48 180N 533W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 72 195N 555W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 11(20) 7(27) 2(29) 72 195N 555W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) 72 195N 555W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 96 210N 570W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 7(18) 3(21) 96 210N 570W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) 96 210N 570W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 120 230N 585W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 3(13) 120 230N 585W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 120 230N 585W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 50 45 45 45 40 40 40 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA