000 FONT12 KNHC 270841 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM KAREN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122007 0900 UTC THU SEP 27 2007 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ...THERE ARE NO LOCATIONS WITH TOTAL ACCUMLATED 5 DAY PROBABILITIES GREATER THAN 2 PERCENT... - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 146N 483W 34 87 4(91) 1(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) 12 146N 483W 50 41 11(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) 12 146N 483W 64 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 24 158N 502W 34 10 49(59) 7(66) 1(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) 24 158N 502W 50 1 25(26) 7(33) 1(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) 24 158N 502W 64 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 36 169N 519W 34 1 15(16) 26(42) 6(48) 2(50) X(50) 1(51) 36 169N 519W 50 X 3( 3) 12(15) 4(19) 1(20) X(20) 1(21) 36 169N 519W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 48 181N 537W 34 X 2( 2) 9(11) 17(28) 7(35) 1(36) 1(37) 48 181N 537W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 4(13) X(13) 1(14) 48 181N 537W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 72 200N 560W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 13(20) 7(27) 2(29) 72 200N 560W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) 72 200N 560W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 96 215N 575W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 7(18) 2(20) 96 215N 575W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) 96 215N 575W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 120 230N 590W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 3(13) 120 230N 590W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 120 230N 590W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 50 50 45 45 40 40 40 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI