000 FONT12 KNHC 260244 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM KAREN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122007 0300 UTC WED SEP 26 2007 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ...THERE ARE NO LOCATIONS WITH TOTAL ACCUMLATED 5 DAY PROBABILITIES GREATER THAN 2 PERCENT... - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 116N 430W 34 46 16(62) 1(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) 12 116N 430W 50 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 12 116N 430W 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 24 126N 455W 34 1 43(44) 11(55) 1(56) 1(57) X(57) X(57) 24 126N 455W 50 X 6( 6) 5(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) 1(12) 24 126N 455W 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 36 138N 476W 34 X 7( 7) 35(42) 9(51) 3(54) 1(55) X(55) 36 138N 476W 50 X X( X) 8( 8) 6(14) 1(15) X(15) 1(16) 36 138N 476W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 48 153N 494W 34 X 1( 1) 11(12) 24(36) 9(45) 2(47) 1(48) 48 153N 494W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 5(15) X(15) 1(16) 48 153N 494W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 72 177N 514W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 20(30) 7(37) 2(39) 72 177N 514W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 3(14) 1(15) 72 177N 514W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 96 200N 530W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 10(23) 4(27) 96 200N 530W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) 96 200N 530W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 120 225N 545W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 5(17) 120 225N 545W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 120 225N 545W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 40 45 50 55 55 50 50 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER BROWN