000 FONT11 KNHC 272034 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION OPHELIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011 2100 UTC TUE SEP 27 2011 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 3 4 5 3 1 1 1 TROP DEPRESSION 57 37 25 13 6 4 6 TROPICAL STORM 39 56 64 63 47 33 41 HURRICANE 1 3 6 21 47 63 52 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 1 3 5 18 33 39 33 HUR CAT 2 X X 1 3 10 16 13 HUR CAT 3 X X X 1 3 6 4 HUR CAT 4 X X X X 1 1 1 HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 30KT 35KT 40KT 50KT 65KT 75KT 75KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 13(29) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) SAN JUAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT THOMAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAINT CROIX 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAINT MAARTEN 34 1 3( 4) 4( 8) 4(12) 1(13) 1(14) X(14) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 1 2( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) BARBUDA 34 5 7(12) 5(17) 3(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) BARBUDA 50 1 X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ANTIGUA 34 3 4( 7) 2( 9) 2(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) GUADELOUPE 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) DOMINICA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH