000 FONT11 KNHC 290835 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012011 0900 UTC WED JUN 29 2011 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 1 3 7 28 NA NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 17 18 24 37 NA NA NA TROPICAL STORM 81 68 61 31 NA NA NA HURRICANE 2 10 9 4 NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 2 9 8 4 NA NA NA HUR CAT 2 X 1 1 X NA NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 40KT 50KT 40KT 25KT NA NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 270N 960W 34 X 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GFMX 250N 960W 34 4 6(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) LA PESCO MX 34 2 15(17) 9(26) 2(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) TAMPICO MX 34 5 30(35) 15(50) 2(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) TAMPICO MX 50 X 5( 5) 5(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) TAMPICO MX 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) TUXPAN MX 34 4 21(25) 7(32) 2(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) TUXPAN MX 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) VERACRUZ MX 34 X 4( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/BRENNAN 000 FONT11 KNHC 290835 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012011 0900 UTC WED JUN 29 2011 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 1 3 7 28 NA NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 17 18 24 37 NA NA NA TROPICAL STORM 81 68 61 31 NA NA NA HURRICANE 2 10 9 4 NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 2 9 8 4 NA NA NA HUR CAT 2 X 1 1 X NA NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 40KT 50KT 40KT 25KT NA NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 270N 960W 34 X 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GFMX 250N 960W 34 4 6(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) LA PESCO MX 34 2 15(17) 9(26) 2(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) TAMPICO MX 34 5 30(35) 15(50) 2(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) TAMPICO MX 50 X 5( 5) 5(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) TAMPICO MX 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) TUXPAN MX 34 4 21(25) 7(32) 2(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) TUXPAN MX 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) VERACRUZ MX 34 X 4( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/BRENNAN