000 FONT11 KNHC 300242 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM TOMAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010 0300 UTC SAT OCT 30 2010 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TOMAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X X X 1 2 6 TROP DEPRESSION X 1 1 1 2 2 5 TROPICAL STORM 52 22 12 13 17 17 26 HURRICANE 48 78 87 87 80 78 63 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 44 60 44 37 34 29 29 HUR CAT 2 3 13 29 28 23 23 18 HUR CAT 3 1 4 12 17 17 19 13 HUR CAT 4 1 1 3 5 5 6 3 HUR CAT 5 X X X 1 1 1 1 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 65KT 75KT 85KT 90KT 95KT 100KT 100KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PT GALLINAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 9(24) 4(28) PT GALLINAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 2(11) PT GALLINAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) CURACAO 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 13(21) 2(23) 1(24) CURACAO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CURACAO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 10(22) GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) GUANTANAMO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 12(18) MONTEGO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) MONTEGO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) KINGSTON 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 14(29) KINGSTON 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) KINGSTON 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 23(32) 9(41) LES CAYES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 4(17) LES CAYES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 18(32) 5(37) PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 2(13) PORT-AU-PRINCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) GONAIVES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 14(21) 5(26) GONAIVES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) GONAIVES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 31(33) 15(48) 4(52) CAPE BEATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 10(19) 2(21) CAPE BEATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 7(16) 3(19) PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 19(23) 6(29) 3(32) SANTO DOMINGO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) SANTO DOMINGO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) PONCE 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 10(17) 7(24) 1(25) X(25) PONCE 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PONCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAN JUAN 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) 5(18) 1(19) X(19) SAINT THOMAS 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 5(13) 2(15) 1(16) X(16) SAINT CROIX 34 X 4( 4) 10(14) 6(20) 3(23) X(23) X(23) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X 5( 5) 4( 9) 2(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 2 6( 8) 7(15) 2(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) BARBUDA 34 2 5( 7) 3(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) ANTIGUA 34 3 6( 9) 4(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) GUADELOUPE 34 4 14(18) 6(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) AVES 34 3 28(31) 29(60) 2(62) 1(63) X(63) X(63) AVES 50 X 2( 2) 14(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) AVES 64 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) DOMINICA 34 9 39(48) 3(51) 1(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) DOMINICA 50 X 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MARTINIQUE 34 42 33(75) 1(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) MARTINIQUE 50 1 15(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) MARTINIQUE 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAINT LUCIA 34 75 21(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) SAINT LUCIA 50 15 60(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) SAINT LUCIA 64 1 25(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) SAINT VINCENT 34 70 27(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) SAINT VINCENT 50 11 60(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) SAINT VINCENT 64 1 26(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) BARBADOS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BARBADOS 50 85 X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) BARBADOS 64 16 1(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) GRENADA 34 6 20(26) 3(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) GRENADA 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TRINIDADTOBAGO 34 4 4( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) PORT OF SPAIN 34 2 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) JUANGRIEGO 34 1 3( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) $$ FORECASTER BERG