000 FONT11 KNHC 290852 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162010 0900 UTC WED SEP 29 2010 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 4 5 11 16 NA NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 51 29 37 35 NA NA NA TROPICAL STORM 44 62 48 45 NA NA NA HURRICANE 1 4 5 4 NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 1 4 4 3 NA NA NA HUR CAT 2 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 35KT 40KT 40KT 35KT NA NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEW YORK CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 17(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) BALTIMORE MD 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) 14(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 18(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) ANNAPOLIS MD 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) 19(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) WASHINGTON DC 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 15(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) RICHMOND VA 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) NORFOLK NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) RALEIGH NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) 10(10) 12(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) 16(16) 8(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) 16(16) 4(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) 13(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MAYPORT NS 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) JACKSONVILLE 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ORLANDO FL 34 X 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X 18(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PATRICK AFB 34 X 18(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) FT PIERCE FL 34 X 24(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) FT PIERCE FL 50 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) W PALM BEACH 34 3 28(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) W PALM BEACH 50 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MIAMI FL 34 9 17(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) MARATHON FL 34 15 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) KEY WEST FL 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MARCO ISLAND 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FT MYERS FL 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 1 16(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART