000 FONT11 KNHC 311457 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM NOEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007 1500 UTC WED OCT 31 2007 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 18(29) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 17(32) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) ILE ST PIERRE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 14(29) BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) BURGEO NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 13(27) PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) PTX BASQUES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 7(27) EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) EDDY POINT NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 10(29) SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) SYDNEY NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 26(27) 8(35) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 3(13) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 5(23) HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 2(15) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 3(13) MONCTON NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 3(12) ST JOHN NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) EASTPORT ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COCOA BEACH FL 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FT PIERCE FL 34 1 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) W PALM BEACH 34 3 8(11) 2(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) MIAMI FL 34 6 9(15) 2(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) MARATHON FL 34 4 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) KEY WEST FL 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MARCO ISLAND 34 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FT MYERS FL 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 3(20) X(20) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) GRAND BAHAMA 34 9 21(30) 10(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 53 22(75) 7(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 2 19(21) 7(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ANDROS 34 81 6(87) 2(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) ANDROS 50 14 12(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) ANDROS 64 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GREAT EXUMA 34 20 9(29) 3(32) 1(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) SAN SALVADOR 34 5 6(11) 6(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) MAYAGUANA 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CIENFUEGOS 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CAMAGUEY 34 9 4(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 239N 786W 34 91 4(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) 12 239N 786W 50 30 11(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) 12 239N 786W 64 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 24 251N 782W 34 60 20(80) 5(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) 24 251N 782W 50 4 24(28) 4(32) 1(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) 24 251N 782W 64 1 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 36 270N 767W 34 5 16(21) 29(50) 7(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) 36 270N 767W 50 X 1( 1) 11(12) 3(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) 36 270N 767W 64 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 48 300N 739W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 23(26) 9(35) X(35) X(35) 48 300N 739W 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 48 300N 739W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 72 360N 670W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 10(35) 1(36) 72 360N 670W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) X(11) 72 360N 670W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 96 450N 600W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) 8(32) 96 450N 600W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 4(12) 96 450N 600W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 120 550N 510W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 120 550N 510W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 120 550N 510W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 55 55 50 45 55 60 60 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN