000 FONT11 KNHC 280856 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007 0900 UTC SUN OCT 28 2007 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 3(12) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) 3(16) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 8(15) 2(17) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 7(14) 3(17) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 3(12) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 3(13) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 9(16) 3(19) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 9(19) 3(22) ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 8(16) 3(19) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 6(10) 5(15) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 8(16) 1(17) HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 7(15) 1(16) ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 11(25) 2(27) CIENFUEGOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 11(20) 6(26) 1(27) CAMAGUEY 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X 2( 2) 8(10) 4(14) 2(16) 3(19) 1(20) GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 8(16) 1(17) GRAND CAYMAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 5(16) 5(21) 1(22) MONTEGO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) KINGSTON 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 5(12) 4(16) 3(19) 1(20) KINGSTON 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) LES CAYES 34 1 14(15) 3(18) 1(19) 1(20) 1(21) 1(22) LES CAYES 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) CAPE BEATA 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) PUERTO PLATA 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 170N 732W 34 10 7(17) X(17) X(17) 1(18) 1(19) X(19) 12 170N 732W 50 1 X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 12 170N 732W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 24 179N 746W 34 1 16(17) 6(23) 2(25) 2(27) 1(28) 1(29) 24 179N 746W 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 24 179N 746W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 36 189N 763W 34 X 3( 3) 12(15) 6(21) 4(25) 4(29) X(29) 36 189N 763W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) 36 189N 763W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 48 197N 777W 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 10(16) 7(23) 6(29) 1(30) 48 197N 777W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) 48 197N 777W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 72 215N 800W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 13(17) 10(27) 2(29) 72 215N 800W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) 72 215N 800W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 96 230N 790W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 12(14) 11(25) 2(27) 96 230N 790W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) 96 230N 790W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 120 250N 770W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 9(15) 3(18) 120 250N 770W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 120 250N 770W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 30 35 35 40 50 40 45 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN