000 FONT11 KNHC 040855 PWSAT1 HURRICANE FELIX WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007 0900 UTC TUE SEP 04 2007 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FELIX WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 135 KTS...155 MPH...250 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT TUXPAN MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) VERACRUZ MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) X(17) X(17) FRONTERA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) FRONTERA MX 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BELIZE 34 1 3( 4) 8(12) 3(15) 2(17) X(17) X(17) BELIZE 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 2 4( 6) 12(18) 4(22) 3(25) X(25) X(25) PUERTO BARRIOS 50 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) PUERTO BARRIOS 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GUANAJA 34 4 10(14) 4(18) 1(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) GUANAJA 50 1 5( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GUANAJA 64 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PUERTO CABEZAS 34 96 X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) PUERTO CABEZAS 50 83 1(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) PUERTO CABEZAS 64 54 X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) BLUEFIELDS 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 143N 845W 34 86 6(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) 12 143N 845W 50 62 10(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) 12 143N 845W 64 36 9(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) 24 145N 866W 34 6 33(39) 5(44) 2(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) 24 145N 866W 50 2 10(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) 24 145N 866W 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 36 149N 887W 34 2 4( 6) 10(16) 4(20) 2(22) X(22) X(22) 36 149N 887W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 36 149N 887W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 48 154N 907W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 7(11) 6(17) X(17) X(17) 48 154N 907W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 48 154N 907W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 72 165N 940W 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 14(18) X(18) X(18) 72 165N 940W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 72 165N 940W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 85 45 30 25 20 0 0 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER KNABB