000 FONT11 KNHC 040249 PWSAT1 HURRICANE FELIX WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007 0300 UTC TUE SEP 04 2007 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FELIX WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 115 KTS...135 MPH...215 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT TAMPICO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) TUXPAN MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) BELIZE 34 X 6( 6) 7(13) 2(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) BELIZE 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 1 6( 7) 10(17) 2(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) PUERTO BARRIOS 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GUANAJA 34 3 30(33) 6(39) 1(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) GUANAJA 50 X 14(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) GUANAJA 64 X 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PUERTO CABEZAS 34 79 5(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) PUERTO CABEZAS 50 45 8(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) PUERTO CABEZAS 64 18 6(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) BLUEFIELDS 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAN ANDRES 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 146N 835W 34 91 5(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) 12 146N 835W 50 72 12(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) 12 146N 835W 64 43 16(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) 24 151N 859W 34 5 61(66) 5(71) 1(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) 24 151N 859W 50 1 32(33) 3(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) 24 151N 859W 64 X 13(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) 36 157N 881W 34 1 10(11) 13(24) 2(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) 36 157N 881W 50 X 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 36 157N 881W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 48 164N 902W 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 48 164N 902W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 48 164N 902W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 72 180N 940W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) 72 180N 940W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 72 180N 940W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 96 195N 975W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 96 195N 975W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 96 195N 975W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 125 65 40 30 25 20 0 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN