000 FONT11 KNHC 030851 PWSAT1 HURRICANE FELIX WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007 0900 UTC MON SEP 03 2007 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FELIX WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 145 KTS...165 MPH...270 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) GFMX 250N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) LA PESCO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) TAMPICO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 6(14) TAMPICO MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) TUXPAN MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 7(18) TUXPAN MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 11(16) 4(20) VERACRUZ MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 11(32) 2(34) FRONTERA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 5(14) 1(15) FRONTERA MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 5(21) 2(23) MERIDA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 7(14) 2(16) 1(17) COZUMEL MX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BELIZE 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 24(30) 21(51) 2(53) 1(54) BELIZE 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 14(25) 1(26) 1(27) BELIZE 64 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) X(13) 1(14) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 18(24) 19(43) 2(45) 1(46) PUERTO BARRIOS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 8(16) 1(17) X(17) PUERTO BARRIOS 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GUANAJA 34 X 2( 2) 43(45) 21(66) 6(72) X(72) X(72) GUANAJA 50 X X( X) 19(19) 21(40) 5(45) X(45) X(45) GUANAJA 64 X X( X) 8( 8) 15(23) 4(27) X(27) X(27) PUERTO CABEZAS 34 X 18(18) 30(48) 3(51) 1(52) X(52) X(52) PUERTO CABEZAS 50 X 5( 5) 19(24) 2(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) PUERTO CABEZAS 64 X 2( 2) 10(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) BLUEFIELDS 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAN ANDRES 34 1 5( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) X(10) 1(11) X(11) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MONTEGO BAY 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 145N 787W 34 95 2(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) 12 145N 787W 50 70 12(82) 1(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) 12 145N 787W 64 39 15(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) 24 150N 819W 34 2 80(82) 7(89) 1(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) 24 150N 819W 50 X 54(54) 14(68) X(68) 1(69) X(69) X(69) 24 150N 819W 64 X 27(27) 15(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) 36 155N 848W 34 X 8( 8) 59(67) 10(77) 3(80) X(80) X(80) 36 155N 848W 50 X 2( 2) 41(43) 10(53) 2(55) X(55) 1(56) 36 155N 848W 64 X 1( 1) 24(25) 7(32) 1(33) X(33) X(33) 48 159N 872W 34 X 1( 1) 22(23) 25(48) 13(61) 1(62) 1(63) 48 159N 872W 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 18(25) 7(32) 1(33) X(33) 48 159N 872W 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 4(17) X(17) X(17) 72 175N 915W 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 23(27) 7(34) 1(35) 72 175N 915W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) 1(11) 72 175N 915W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) 96 190N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 13(22) 4(26) 96 190N 950W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 2(12) 96 190N 950W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) 120 205N 985W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) 120 205N 985W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 120 205N 985W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 150 145 125 100 55 65 40 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER KNABB