000 FONT11 KNHC 092047 PWSAT1 SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012007 2100 UTC WED MAY 09 2007 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CHARLESTON SC 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAVANNAH GA 34 1 3( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) 6(15) X(15) X(15) JACKSONVILLE 34 3 9(12) 3(15) 3(18) 11(29) X(29) X(29) JACKSONVILLE 50 X 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) DAYTONA BEACH 34 2 10(12) 8(20) 3(23) 14(37) X(37) X(37) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ORLANDO FL 34 X 4( 4) 5( 9) 4(13) 12(25) X(25) X(25) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X 4( 4) 5( 9) 3(12) 12(24) X(24) X(24) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) FT PIERCE FL 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 7(15) X(15) X(15) W PALM BEACH 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) VENICE FL 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) TAMPA FL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 6(11) X(11) X(11) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 7(12) X(12) X(12) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 306N 806W 34 35 13(48) 3(51) 1(52) 7(59) X(59) X(59) 12 306N 806W 50 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 12 306N 806W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 24 302N 808W 34 21 16(37) 4(41) 2(43) 9(52) X(52) X(52) 24 302N 808W 50 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 24 302N 808W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 36 298N 809W 34 11 15(26) 6(32) 3(35) 11(46) X(46) X(46) 36 298N 809W 50 X 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 36 298N 809W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 48 295N 809W 34 6 14(20) 7(27) 3(30) 12(42) X(42) X(42) 48 295N 809W 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 48 295N 809W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 72 295N 809W 34 6 14(20) 7(27) 3(30) 12(42) X(42) X(42) 72 295N 809W 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 72 295N 809W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 35 35 30 30 25 0 0 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER KNABB