000 FZNT23 KNHC 170250 OFFNT3 OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHWEST AND TROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN SEA NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 530 PM EDT SAT AUG 16 2008 OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT. AMZ089-170330- SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W 530 PM EDT SAT AUG 16 2008 .SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL STORM FAY NEAR 19.4N 76.3W 1005 MB AT 11 PM EDT MOVING W AT 12 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT. FAY WILL BEGIN TO TRACK NW OVERNIGHT AND BE NEAR 20.0N 78.0W SUN MORNING...TO JUST S OF THE COAST OF CUBA NEAR 21.5N 80.0W EARLY SUN NIGHT...MOVE INLAND CENTRAL CUBA LATER ON SUN NIGHT TO ALONG THE N COAST OF CUBA NEAR 23.0N 81.5W BY MON MORNING. FAY WILL THEN EMERGE INTO THE LOWER STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN REACHING TO NEAR 24.5N 82.0W BY MON NIGHT...AND TO NEAR THE FL W COAST AS A HURRICANE TUE...INLAND NEAR 27.8N 82.5W TUE NIGHT. FAY IS THEN EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BACK TO A TROPICAL STORM AS AS IT TRACKS INLAND OVER N CENTRAL FL WED AND OVER SE GEORGIA LATE WED NIGHT AND THU. RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM 31N71W TO S FL THU. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 54W/55W MOVING W 13 KT WILL ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SUN NIGHT AND CONTINUE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU. $$ AMZ082-170330- NW CARIBBEAN N OF 15N W OF 75W 530 PM EDT SAT AUG 16 2008 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING N OF 18N E OF 82W... .TONIGHT...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 90 NM NE AND 50 NM SE QUADRANTS OF FAY. HIGHEST WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT...BUILDING 10 TO 15 FT. ELSEWHERE N OF 18N E OF 82W WINDS 15 TO 20 KT INCREASING TO 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT BUILDING TO 8 TO 12 FT. S OF 18N E OF 80W SE TO S WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT. ELSEWHERE N TO NE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT. NUMEROUS SQUALLS DEVELOPING N OF 17N E OF 80W. .SUN AND SUN NIGHT...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 90 NM NE AND 60 NM SE QUADRANTS...INCREASING TO 100 NM NE...75 NM SE... 40 NM SW AND 60 NM NW QUADRANTS OF FAY SUN NIGHT. HIGHEST WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT...INCREASING TO 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT SUN NIGHT. SEAS BUILDING TO 11 TO 17 FT. ELSEWHERE N OF 18N E OF 82W S WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. S OF 18N E OF 80W SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT. N OF 18N BETWEEN 82W AND 84W N TO NE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT. ELSEWHERE W OF 80W NW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SQUALLS N OF 18N E OF 82W...SPREADING N ACROSS CUBA INTO THE STRAITS OF FL. .MON AND MON NIGHT...N OF 20N E OF 83W S WINDS DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT. ELSEWHERE E OF 85W E TO SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT. W OF 85W NE TO E WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N CENTRAL PART EARLY. .TUE...E TO SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT. .WED...S OF 19N W OF 85W...INCLUDING GULF OF HONDURAS...SE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 5 FT. ELSEWHERE E TO SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT. .THU...S OF 19N E OF 78W E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT. ELSEWHERE S OF 18N E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT. N OF 18N E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT. $$ AMZ084-170330- SW CARIBBEAN S OF 15N W OF 75W 530 PM EDT SAT AUG 16 2008 .TONIGHT AND SUN...VARIABLE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT OR LESS...EXCEPT MAINLY NW TO N W OF 77W. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 12N. .SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT...N OF 11N E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT. S OF 11N VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS W OF 80W. .TUE THROUGH THU...N OF 12N E OF 80W NE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT. N OF 12N W OF 80W NE TO E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT. S OF 12N NE TO E WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 1 TO 2 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 12N. $$ AMZ086-170330- E CARIBBEAN E OF 75W TO LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS 530 PM EDT SAT AUG 16 2008 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING N OF 18N W OF 73W INCLUDING WINDWARD PASSAGE... .TONIGHT...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 90 NM NE AND 50 NM SE QUADRANTS OF FAY. HIGHEST WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. HIGHEST SEAS TO 15 FT. ELSEWHERE N OF 17N W OF 72W SE WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT. REMAINDER AREA E TO SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT... EXCEPT VARIABLE 5 TO 10 KT S OF 14N W OF 71W. SEAS 3 TO 4 FT E OF 71W...AND 2 TO 3 FT W OF 71W. NUMEROUS SQUALLS N OF 16N W OF 68W. .SUN AND SUN NIGHT...N OF 18N W OF 72W...INCLUDING WINDWARD PASSAGE...SE TO S WINDS 15 TO 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4 FT. ELSEWHERE W OF 70W E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT. E OF 70W E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WINDWARD PASSAGE DIMINISHING EARLY. .MON AND MON NIGHT...S OF 15N W OF 65W E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT. ELSEWHERE E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT. .TUE...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT ALONG COAST OF COLOMBIA...AND 5 TO 7 FT ELSEWHERE. .WED AND THU...W OF 70W E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT. E OF 70W E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT. $$ AMZ087-170330- TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W 530 PM EDT SAT AUG 16 2008 .TONIGHT...N OF 12N NE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT IN NE SWELL. S OF 12N E TO SE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT. .SUN THROUGH MON NIGHT...E TO SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT...BECOMING NE TO E MON. SEAS 4 TO 5 FT. .TUE AND WED...N OF 14N NE TO E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT. S OF 14N NE TO E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 11N. .THU...N OF 19N W OF 59W NE TO E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 6 FT. N OF 19N E OF 59W SE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT. S OF 19N SE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 18N E OF 60W. $$ AMZ088-170330- SYNOPSIS FOR THE SW N ATLC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS 530 PM EDT SAT AUG 16 2008 .SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL STORM FAY NEAR 19.4N 76.3W 1005 MB AT 11 PM EDT MOVING W AT 12 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT. FAY WILL BEGIN TO TRACK NW OVERNIGHT AND BE NEAR 20.0N 78.0W SUN MORNING...TO JUST S OF THE COAST OF CUBA NEAR 21.5N 80.0W EARLY SUN NIGHT...THEN MOVE INLAND CENTRAL CUBA LATER ON SUN NIGHT AND TO ALONG THE N COAST OF CUBA NEAR 23.0N 81.5W BY MON MORNING. FAY WILL THEN EMERGE INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO AND STRENGTHEN REACHING THE FL W COAST AS A HURRICANE TUE AND MOVE INLAND. FAY IS THEN EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BACK TO A TROPICAL STORM AS AS IT TRACKS INLAND OVER N CENTRAL FL WED AND OVER SE GEORGIA LATE WED NIGHT AND THU. RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM 31N71W TO S FL THU. $$ AMZ080-170330- SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 65W INCLUDING BAHAMAS 530 PM EDT SAT AUG 16 2008 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING S OF 21N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED S OF 25N W OF 79W SUN NIGHT INTO MON AND AGAIN N OF 29N W OF 80W THU... .TONIGHT...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 90 NM NE AND 50 NM SE QUADRANTS OF FAY...DIMINISHING TO 20 TO 33 KT LATE. HIGHEST WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...SUBSIDING TO 9 TO 11 FT LATE. HIGHEST SEAS TO 15 FT. ELSEWHERE S OF 24N W OF 70W E WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT. ELSEWHERE S OF 26N NE TO E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT...EXCEPT 2 TO 4 FT W OF BAHAMAS. BETWEEN 26N TO 28N E TO SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT. N OF 28N SE TO S WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT. SCATTERED TSTMS AND SQUALLS S OF 24N BETWEEN 70W AND 78W. .SUN...S OF 26N W OF 75W SE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT. ELSEWHERE S OF 26N W OF 73W SE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT. ELSEWHERE W OF 70W SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 4 FT. E OF 70W NE TO E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 5 FT. NUMEROUS TSTMS AND SQUALLS S OF 26N W OF 75W. .SUN NIGHT AND MON...S OF 25N W OF 79W SE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT EARLY ...THEN INCREASING TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE WITHIN 100 NM NE...75 NM SE...40 NM SW AND 60 NM NW QUADRANTS OF FAY. HIGHEST WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT...DIMINISHING TO 50 KT GUSTS TO 60 KT MON MORNING. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER IN AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. HIGHEST SEAS TO 17 FT. ELSEWHERE S OF 26N W OF 77W SE WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. ELSEWHERE E TO SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT. NUMEROUS SQUALLS AND TSTMS S OF 26N W OF 78W...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 27N W OF 76W. .MON NIGHT...S OF 28N W OF 78W S WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT. ELSEWHERE W OF 73W SE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT. E OF 73W SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT. .TUE AND WED...N OF 25N W OF 77W S WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT. ELSEWHERE SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT. NUMEROUS SQUALLS AND TSTMS N OF 25N W OF 78W. .THU...S WINDS 20 TO 33 KT N OF 29N W OF 80W...INCREASING TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE. SEAS TO 12 FT IN AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. ELSEWHERE N OF 25N W OF 76W SE TO S WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT. S OF 22N E OF 68W NE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT. ELSEWHERE E TO SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 4 FT. $$ FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN/AGUIRRE