000 AGXX40 KNHC 301924 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 224 PM EST Sat Dec 30 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front crosses the Gulf from Ft Myers Florida to 26N89W to weak 1019 mb low pressure centered near 28N96W. A weak surface trough extends S from near Houston TX through the low to the Bay of Campeche near 19N95W. The front is expected to dissipate slowly overnight as return flow begins to set up ahead of the next cold front heading southward through the Tennessee Valley and southern plains states. The warmer air returning northward has prompted dense fog advisories within 30 nm of the coast for the NW Gulf between Baffin Bay and Matagorda Bay for tonight and Sun. A ridge of high pressure will shift E across the northern Gulf tonight, then strong high pressure associated with arctic air over the central U.S. and a deep mid-level trough supporting the front over the eastern U.S. will push a strong cold front off the Texas coast late Sun night. Mix down of momentum behind the front suggests frequent gusts to gale force will affect the waters within 60 nm of the coast from Choctawhatchee Bay FL to High Island TX from 00Z to 18Z Mon. Model guidance remains in fairly good agreement in bringing minimal gale force winds to the waters near Tampico Mon night and the waters near Veracruz Mon night and Tue. Winds over the western Gulf will slowly subside but remain strong until Thu morning due to a reinforcing shot of cold air arriving on Wed. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... Strong trades over the central and SW Caribbean have diminished as the pressure gradient north of the area remains weak in response to low pres moving E in he vicinity of Bermuda. A vestige of the stronger winds will linger on in the form of a narrow swath of strong winds pulsing within 60 nm of the NW coast of Colombia tonight and Sun night. Winds over the Caribbean will otherwise generally remain moderate until a strong cold front enters the basin Wed. An area of 8 ft seas in the tropical Atlc waters east of the Windwards will subside today. Stronger trade winds over the central Atlc this weekend will generate easterly swell, expected to reach the Windward Islands by Mon morning. Winds and seas over the tropical Atlc waters will increase Tue through Fri as strong high pressure ridging builds west from the Central Atlc. A long fetch of strong trade winds could cause seas near 20N42W to build as high as 12 ft by Fri evening. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... A cold front extends WSW from 31N42W to 29N48W, continues as a nearly stationary front to 31N57W, then continues as a warm front to low pres 1014 mb centered near 31N66W. The cold front continues SW from the low to NE of the Bahamas near 28N73W. Strong S to SW winds are blowing in the S semicircle of the low within 180 nm. A weak cold front reaches SW from the low to central Bahamas. Winds and seas will subside N and E of the Bahamas tonight and Sun as the low and front pull out to the NE. A strong cold front will move off NE Florida coast Mon morning, then reach from 30N65W to the Florida Straits by late Mon night. Strong northerly winds will spread southward over the northern Bahamas Tue and Tue night, then diminish Wed, generating 10-14 ft seas in N swell across the waters N of 26N through early Wed. Models remain in good agreement in developing a large area of deepening low pressure over the Bahamas Wed night and Thu, then lifting it out to the NNE. Gales are quite possible over the waters E of 65W. Strong winds east of the Bahamas will subside on Fri, but long period swell will maintain seas between 8 and 13 ft east of the bahamas until Fri night. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... Gale Warning Mon. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Mon night. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... Gale Warning Mon. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Mon night. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Wed night into Thu. .AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Wed night into Thu. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster McElroy. National Hurricane Center.