000 AGXX40 KNHC 101834 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 134 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... 1035 mb high over N Mexico continues to expand SE across the basin in the wake of a strong cold front, now well SE of the area. Winds and seas have continued the diminishing trend with strong Nly flow now lingering only across SE portions and through Yucatan Channel and across W half of Cuba and spilling into Carib. Seas of 7-10 ft in Nly swell this morning look to have dropped off another 1-2 ft since 12Z, with slowly improving conditions expected E half through Mon. The high will drift ENE to near the S TX coast through Mon evening with narrow ridging developing across across the basin, producing only gentle to moderate winds and 1-3 ft seas across the waters, except 4-5 ft in lingering N swell in the far SE part. A dry cold front will clip the northern and eastern Gulf waters early Tue morning through Tue night with winds briefly increasing to moderate to fresh over those portions. New high pres will build back in the wake of the front through Thu with gentle winds and 1-3 ft seas prevailing basin-wide by then. Another cold front may clip the NE Gulf by late Thu night into Fri. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... Northerly swell propagating through Atlantic passages continue to fade with buoys across N Puerto Rico and VI showing 4-5 ft attm. Strong cold front sweeping across the region now extends from E central Cuba to central Panama to the E of Bocas del Torro per a recent ASCAT pass. Edge of scat swath depicted potential for winds to 40 kt along front and just offshore of Panama, but cuold be influenced by strong convection persisting along front. Very active convection remains within 150 nm ahead of the front with heavy rain possible across portions of Jamaica and Panama next few hours. A gale warning remains in effect offshore of NE Honduras and Nicaragua. No recent altimeter data is available for area behind front, but upwind buoy 41057 has peaked as high as 14 ft this morning and now 13 ft. Dynamic fetch of northerly winds spilling down the SW Carib has likely generated seas as high as 15 ft offshore of W Panama and SE Costa Rica, and was analyzed at 15 ft offshore of the reefs off of NE Honduras this morning. Moderate to fresh trades prevail elsewhere E of 77W with seas now 4-7 ft inside Carib and have subsided slightly to 6-9 ft across the Tropical N Atlc waters. The S portion of the front has begun to stall and likely to meander in place next few days before dissipating, while N portions will continue to move slowly ESE and reach from near the W Windward Passage to E Jamaica to central Panama by Mon morning. Gale conditions will remain offshore of Nicaragua through Mon evening where seas will remain 8-15 ft. The front will wash out by Wed with a remnant trough lingering through Thu. Leftover fresh to strong northerly flow off Nicaragua will finally diminish by Thu afternoon, when seas will finally drop below 8 ft. Meanwhile, tradewind regime will return to most of basin by Fri as NE Atlc high pres noses ridge SW to Turks and Caicos area and underneath a series of fast moving clipper type fronts moving through the mid latitudes. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... The cold front extends from near 31N69W through the SE Bahamas ato E central Cuba, where it has slowed its forward motion. Active convection continues within 180 nm E of the front. Fresh to strong NW to N flow with a cold dry airmass continues to filter across the waters in the wake of the front. Recent ASCAT data showed fresh to strong flow behind front and suggested strongest winds across Straits of Florida and blowing across Cuba. Seas are running 6-9 ft NE of the Bahamas, and 9-11 ft N of 28N behind the front. Fresh to strong southerly winds are N of 28N ahead of the front, with a gale warning in place N of 33N. Moderate to fresh E-SE flow and 5 to 8 ft seas in mixed swell cover the remainder of the waters E of the front. The front will continue to shift eastward and extend from 30N65W to the Turks and Caicos by this evening, then will stall from near 27N65W to the W Windward Passage by Mon morning. Marine conditions will significantly improve through Mon and Mon night while the front holds in place. Another cold front will sweep across the far NW portion Tue through Wed with another round of fresh to near gale force winds and seas building to 8-13 ft across the waters N of 27N Tue afternoon through Wed. Conditions will improve thereafter as high pressure builds across the basin in the wake of the front. Yet another cold front may move into the NW waters by the end of the week. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ029...W CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N W OF 80W... Gale Warning today into Mon. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Mon night. .AMZ039...SW CARIBBEAN S OF 11N INCLUDING APPROACHES TO PANAMA CANAL... Gale Warning today into tonight. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Stripling. National Hurricane Center.