000 AGXX40 KNHC 061909 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 209 PM EST Wed Dec 6 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... ...Adverse Marine Conditions expected Thursday through Friday night... A strong cold front extends from the Florida Big Bend to a 1016 mb low pressure located near 26N96W to near Tampico, Mexico. A recent scatterometer pass shows strong northerly winds behind the front, with several wind barbs of 30 kt. In addition, buoy observations are aslo showing sustained wind of 30 kt with gusts to 35 kt, and a gale warning remains in effect for frequent gusts of gale force behind the front, including also the coastal waters. The low will move eastward to near 25N94W by Thursday morning, and near 27N86W by Friday morning, dragging the front S of the area by Fri night. Strong to gale force northerly winds and rough seas are expected in the wake of the front. Latest model guidance indicates reinforcing cold air, with gale force winds extending over several forecast zones, including the southern Gulf. Winds will increase to gale force over the west- central gulf on Thu, and over the SW gulf by Thu night. On Fri, gale conditions will persist across the west-central and SW gulf, and may extend eastward across the remainder of the forecast zones S of 26N. 12 ft seas are likely to occur in the central and western Gulf Thu through late Fri night, with a peak close to 18 ft in the west-central and SW Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... Trade winds will remain fresh to strong in the central Caribbean through Thu then diminish Fri, producing seas of 8-11 ft. Large northerly swell from a gale-force winter low in the central Atlantic will begin affecting the offshore waters of the entire Lesser Antilles Thu. Combined seas from these northerly swell along with trade wind swell will build seas to 10 or 11 ft Fri and Sat. A strong cold front will reach the NW Caribbean by Fri night. Strong northerly winds behind the front will be enhanced in the Yucatan Channel, possibly reaching minimal gale force. The front is forecast to extend from central Cuba to Honduras on Sat, and stall from the Windward passage to Nicaragua Sun. Expect winds of 25-30 kt over the NW Caribbean on Sat with seas building to 12 or 13 ft. By Sat night into Sun morning, the strongest winds are forecast to occur within about 120 nm just off the coast of Nicaragua. Frequent gusts of gale force are aslo possible there. Seas are forecast to build up to 10 or 11 ft within this area of strong winds. A cold front moving across the central Atlantic could also bring some increase in winds and seas across the NE Caribbean, including the Leeward Islands Thu through Fri. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... High pressure prevails over the forecast waters. Fresh to strong easterly winds are evident S of 25N per scatterometer and surface data. Buoy and ship observations indicate seas to 10 ft within this area east of the Bahamas. Moderate to locally fresh winds are noted N of 25N. The high pres will move SE over the next 24 hours, reaching a position near 30N61W by Thu morning while weakening some. As a result, winds and seas will diminish across the SE waters on Thu. However, seas of 8-9 ft in NE swell will continue to affect the waters E of the Bahamas and the Atlantic passages E of Puerto Rico on Thu. A weak cold front will move east of NE Florida tonight, but not progress much and remain nearly stationary through Fri, then reinforcing cold air will push the front SE into the Bahamas Sat. Fresh to strong winds are expected on either side of the front on Sat. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ011...NW GULF INCLUDING STETSON BANK... Gale Warning Thu night. .GMZ013...N CENTRAL GULF INCLUDING FLOWER GARDEN BANKS MARINE SANCTUARY... Gale Warning Thu. Gale Warning Fri. .GMZ015...NE GULF N OF 25N E OF 87W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Fri night. .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... Gale Warning Thu into Fri. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Fri into Fri night. .GMZ019...CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN 87W AND 94W... Gale Warning Fri. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Fri into Fri night. .GMZ021...E GULF FROM 22N TO 25N E OF 87W INCLUDING STRAITS OF FLORIDA... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Fri night. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... Gale Warning Thu night into Fri. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Fri into Fri night. .GMZ025...E BAY OF CAMPECHE INCLUDING CAMPECHE BANK... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Fri into Fri night. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ029...W CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N W OF 80W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sat night into Sun night. .AMZ039...SW CARIBBEAN S OF 11N INCLUDING APPROACHES TO PANAMA CANAL... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sun night. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.