000 AGXX40 KNHC 120846 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 346 AM EST Sun Nov 12 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... Strong high pressure along eastern seaboard extends SSW into NE gulf this morning where low-mid lvl trough along about 90W inducing strong pres gradient NE portions. Recent sat pass showed ENE to E winds 20-25 kt N of 26N and E of trough and ENE winds 20-25 kt through Straits and into NE Yucatan. Seas NE portion suggested 5-8 ft per recent buoy and altimeter obs and 6-9 ft Straits to entrance to Yucatan Channel. Both of these above wave guidance and have adjusted up. W of trough E winds 15-20 kt generally prevail, except ESE across offshore and nearshore TX coastal waters, and light winds across Mexican coastal waters where coastal trough has shifted inland. Trough will shift slowly WSW through tonight and strong high is forecast to shift NE into W Atlc but continue to nose SW into SE US to maintain pres gradient and little change in winds across ern portions. New front will sweep E across central US Mon with high behind it enhancing pres gradient across NE half of basin through Tue morning. Peristant broad low pres across W Carib and developing trough extending NNE into Atlc will combine with this scenario to produce broad troffing across SW Gulf from NW Yucatan to vcnty of 24N95W tonight through Tue to yield a N to NNE fetch across all but NW portions of gulf, with highest seas to 8 ft across SE portions and Yucatan Channel. Winds to veer across NW gulf early Wed and open up into low pres moving into Plains. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... Deep layered cyclonic circulation continues to drift W across the W Carib this morning with recent scat data suggesting sfc low more accurately depicted as trough from 11N81W NW into NE Nicaragua. Pres gradient to the N and NW yielding strong NE to ENE winds through Straits of Fl across Cuba and in lee of Cuba and across Yucatan Channel. Seas there has built quickly 6-10 ft overnight W of 80W where 42056 fluctuating 9-10 ft. Moderate to locally fresh Ely trades prevail elsewhere E of 75W and to near 20 kt through the ABC's and Venezuelan waters S of 13N where seas are 5-6 ft. Large pool of abundant moisture continues trapped between broad cyclonic circulation and old frontal zone across NW Bahamas, with drier more stable air finally pushing W through PR and USVI yesterday evening and overnight. W Carib trough to drift to along or just inland of central America next 24-36 hrs with lingering N to S troffing expected to amplify across NW Carib with winds gradually backing through Tue. New broad and weak low to develop across SW Carib during this time while low to mid level troffing develops from ern Cuba NNE across Atlc ahead of next front. This to produce anomalous pattern across the basin more typical of Oct monsoon season with models showing variations of llvl vorticity lifting NNE out of coastal Cuba and Bahamas NE along trough into Atlc, and new gyre across W central Carib producing SW to S winds from Panama and Colombia to Hispaniola by Wed. Tropical moisture to lift out of Carib and across Greater Antilles with this pattern. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... Front has stalled from near 31N63W to extreme NW Bahamas and vcnty of Palm Beach. Late evening scat pass showed large area of 25 to locally 30 kt winds N of front extending from Bahamas to 30N where buoy and altimeter data show broad zone of 10-14 ft seas extending NE to beyond 30N70W, while near shore buoys off central FL 10-11 ft. Again this a bit above model guidance and have adjusted manually. Broad inverted troffing along about 70W and S of 24N maintaining tight pres gradient S of frontal boundary and fresh to strong ENE to NE winds across entire Bahama chain and into Cuba and Straits. Pool of tropical moisture continues to yield very active and squally weather there under upper ridging. Strong high pres to shift off E coast today and into W Atlc tonight with winds gradually veering E to ENE and diminishing slightly, but broad trough along 70W to shift Wwd and maintain tight gradient through Bahamas and Straits. Trough to amplify N out ahead of next front to move off SE US Mon and shift ESE across E half of area through Wed, yielding S to SW flow E of trough and NE to NNE winds W of front and trough. Very active weather likely to lift out of N Carib and along vort centers riding along this trough which may intensify or become sub tropical near or after reaching 30N Wed. Have trended toward an ECMWF leaning solution. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Stripling. National Hurricane Center.