000 AGXX40 KNHC 280822 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 422 AM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front is emerging into the northwest Gulf, currently reaching from southeast Louisiana to Tampico Mexico. Buoy, platform, and scatterometer data indicate strong northerly winds behind the front. Only a few showers and thunderstorms are active along the front north of 26N. The front will continue to propagate through the Gulf, reaching from the Florida Panhandle to Veracruz in the southwest Gulf by this afternoon. A combination of denser, cool and dry air behind the front funneling along the coast of Mexico, and a tight pressure gradient between high pressure N of the front and lower pressure over the NW Caribbean will allow winds to reach gale force off the Mexican coast from Tamaulipas to Veracruz this morning, ending late today off Veracruz. The other main forecast challenge will be the track and intensity of developing low pressure in the northwest Caribbean. Although latest buoy and scatterometer data indicate only 20 to 25 kt winds, the low is slowly becoming better organized and is expected to reach minimal tropical storm strength later today as it moves northeast into western Cuba ahead of the advancing cold front. Strong northerly winds, rough seas and large areas of showers and thunderstorms will accompany the low pressure and front over the eastern Gulf later today and persisting through late Sunday. Winds and seas will diminish into early next week as high pressure builds again over the northern Gulf in the wake of the front. Southeast return flow will increase over the western Gulf by mid week between the ridge to the N and NE, and lower pressure to the NW of the Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... Low pressure continues to slowly become better organized over the northwest Caribbean near 19N85W with an estimated minimum pressure of 1005 mb. Clusters of showers and thunderstorms are active within 180 nm of the center of the low pressure. A gale warning has been in place over the northwest Caribbean, predicated on the low becoming more developed this morning. However, recent scatterometer and buoy data show winds have not increased much since yesterday, staying around 20 to 25 kt, and the gale will be cancelled. Yet longer term trends continue to indicate this low may reach tropical storm strength by early afternoon as it moves northeast toward western Cuba late today before continuing well north of the area Sunday, ahead of a cold front moving across the Gulf of Mexico. Fresh northerly winds will follow the front as it moves through the Yucatan Channel late Sunday and sweeps southeast. The front will weaken into Mon, and will stall from eastern Cuba to eastern Honduras by late Mon and then become diffuse through mid week. Elsewhere moderate to fresh trade winds will diminish by Sunday as the low pressure moves north of the region and weakens the pressure gradient over the Caribbean. Trades will increase by to moderate to fresh by mid week. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... A stationary front along 24N will become diffuse later today ahead of an area of a developing tropical storm moving across western Cuba into the Cay Sal area of the Bahamas by late today. The tropical storm will continue to the northeast tonight across the northern Bahamas, ahead of a cold front moving across the Gulf of Mexico. The front will move off the northeast Florida coast tonight, following just to the west of the tropical storm through Sunday as it continues to move to the northeast, reaching a position north of the discussion area near 31N73W by late Sunday followed by fresh to strong northwest winds, north of 25N. Seas will build due to a combination of the tropical storm and the strong winds behind the front, but given how quickly these two features move across the region, duration for wave growth will be limited and thus maximum seas will be limited to 12 to 14 ft. The front will reach a position from Bermuda to the Windward Passage by early afternoon on Monday, as winds and seas diminish across the basin. The tail end of the front will stall and weaken through mid week, eventually drifting to the northwest as a trough across the southern Bahamas and dissipating. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... Gale Warning today. .GMZ021...E GULF FROM 22N TO 25N E OF 87W INCLUDING STRAITS OF FLORIDA... Tropical Storm Warning tonight. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... Gale Warning today. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ013...CARIBBEAN N OF 18N BETWEEN 76W AND 85W INCLUDING CAYMAN BASIN... Tropical Storm Warning today. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... Tropical Storm Warning tonight into Sun. .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... Tropical Storm Warning tonight into Sun night. .AMZ117...BAHAMAS INCLUDING CAY SAL BANK... Tropical Storm Warning tonight into Sun. .AMZ119...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N E OF BAHAMAS TO 70W... Tropical Storm Warning Sun. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Christensen. National Hurricane Center.