000 AGXX40 KNHC 150517 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 117 AM EDT Sun Oct 15 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... A N-S surface trough along 92W will continue westward today with a weak, about 1013 mb, surface low developing briefly along the trough near 23N92W and drifting N. A cold front currently over NW Tx, is forecast to reach along the Tx coast this evening, with the front continuing to race SE overrunning the trough to a position from the Fl Big Bend to 23N93W to the Bay of Campeche late Mon. Guidance now suggests the front will track further S reaching from S FL to the Yucatan Peninsula on Tue. Fresh to locally strong N winds will develop in the wake of the front across the NW Gulf by Mon evening, increasing to minimal gale force along the W-Central and within 90 nm of the Mexican coast between 94W and 97W beginning late Mon, and continuing through late Tue, with seas building to a max of 14 ft over the SW Gulf. Strong post-gale NW flow will then continue through Tue night into Wed morning before diminishing to a fresh E breeze across the northern Gulf waters on Wed night into Thu. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... A tropical wave currently along 65W is accompanied by considerable convection well E of the wave across the NE Caribbean. The wave is forecast to move W through the Central Caribbean on Mon and Tue, and enter the Western Caribbean during mid week, with fresh trades setting up E of the wave axis through Wed morning, with the pressure gradient supporting fresh to strong SE trades across the SE Caribbean on Wed night into Thu. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... A surface trough extending from 31N76W to 24N79W will move W today with a weak surface low currently analyzed along the trough at 27.5N78W reaching the FL coast around sunrise this morning. A second trough is along 65W, and a tropical wave is also along 65W across the tropical waters. Both of these features will continue W reaching along 71W on Mon. An ill- defined 1008 mb surface low currently near 20N64W has the potential to become a tropical cyclone in a few days as it recurves NW reaching near 25N72W on Mon, then turning N along the surface trough reaching near 27N72W on Mon night. If the low develops, it will then race N-NE along the trough on Tue night into Wed with the then eastward moving trough forecast to reach a position from 31N63W to 22N73W early Wed. Strong SE flow, and SCT TS, will spread NW across the ATLC waters to the E of the trough and tropical wave through Tue. A cold front will enter the NW discussion waters on Mon night, reach from 31N63W to the Central Bahamas late Wed, and stall from 31N61W to the Central Bahamas on Wed night and Thu, with another surface low possibly developing along the stalled front near 30N71W on Thu. Fresh to locally strong NE winds are forecast to develop W of the front on Mon night, and spread S across the waters N of 28N W of 77W on Tue night, with these conditions reaching the NW Bahamas on Wed night into Thu. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... Gale Warning Mon. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... Gale Warning Mon into Mon night. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Mon night into Tue night. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Nelson. National Hurricane Center.