000 AGXX40 KNHC 010700 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 300 AM EDT Sun Oct 1 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A middle to upper level low continues to spin over the SE Gulf near 23N87W. This low is forecast to shift SW and across the Yucatan through Mon. Deep tropical moisture continues to feed N from the NW Caribbean Sea into the SE Gulf. A surface trough extends from 28N85W to 22.587W. Gentle winds are in the vicinity of the trough, with moderate to fresh NE to E flow elsewhere, except fresh to strong in the NE Gulf where high pressure is building down from the N. Another surface trough is in the SW Gulf, extending from 22N97W to 18.5N94W. Fresh NW winds are funneling up along the coast of Veracruz to the W of the trough. The trough in the eastern Gulf is forecast to shift westward through the early part of the week, while the trough offshore of Veracruz remains near stationary, and as high pressure continues to build down from the N. The fresh to strong winds in the NE Gulf will spread to the SW and W through the week, covering almost the entire basin, except the waters S of 22N, by Wed night through Thu. Seas will build to 7 to 11 ft across the same area as the fresh to strong winds. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring in the NW Caribbean, supported by an upper level low in the SE Gulf of Mexico, with troughing extending southward from it to central Honduras. A tropical wave in the central Caribbean combined with an expansive upper level low over Hispaniola is supporting numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms across the central Caribbean, from the N coast of Colombia to eastern Jamaica, Hispaniola, and Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. This tropical wave and accompanying upper low will move westward, reaching the western Caribbean Mon, then reaching Central America by mid- week. Mainly moderate E to SE flow and seas of 4 to 6 ft dominate the basin, except 1 to 3 ft seas in the SW Caribbean where SE winds are gentle. Little change is expected for the next several days, except in the eastern Caribbean where a tropical wave currently along 46W will move into the area by mid-week. Trades in the wake of the tropical wave will increase slightly to moderate to fresh. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... A developing cold front extends from 1013 mb low pressure near 31N73W to 28N77W. Another surface low, 1012 mb, is located to the SW-W near Daytona Beach, Florida. Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms are occurring E of this low to about 77W. A recent scatterometer pass showed NE to E winds to gale force N of 29N and W of 79W where a gale warning is in effect through the upcoming evening. A surface trough is analyzed from the N coast of the Dominican Republic to the NE near 25N67W, with scattered showers and thunderstorms occurring within 300 nm SE of the trough. Mainly moderate E to SE flow prevails S of 27N, with moderate to fresh winds elsewhere N of 27N outside of the gale area. Seas are mainly 4 to 7 ft, except 8 to 12 ft in the gale area. The cold front is forecast to sag to the S through the day while the low currently along 31N shifts NE of the area. High pressure will build in the wake of the front with fresh to near gale force winds spreading southward to 27N W of 68W by early Mon, along with 8 to 11 ft seas. Fresh to strong NE to E flow and the 8 to 11 ft seas will persist across the NW half of the basin through mid-week, with mainly moderate NE to E flow and 5 to 8 ft seas elsewhere. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... Gale Warning early today into tonight. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Lewitsky. National Hurricane Center.