000 AGXX40 KNHC 091915 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 315 PM EDT Sat Sep 9 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Katia is no longer a tropical cyclone as it made landfall over Mexico during the overnight hours and has since weakened to a remnant low near 20N98W this morning. A strong gradient left behind in its wake is producing strong winds within about 60 nm of the coast from 20N to 21N, with seas of 8-10 ft. As the low dissipated through this evening, the winds will drop off to 20 kt or less and seas lowering to less than 8 ft. Farther east, major Hurricane Irma has lifted N of the central coast of Cuba early this afternoon, and is regaining its strength. Irma is forecast to continue westward through tonight, then turn NW to N towards the Florida Keys and general vicinity of the SW Florida coast on Sunday. This will bring tropical storm force and hurricane force winds to the eastern portions of Florida Bay and portions of the SE zones. Tropical storm and hurricane conditions will then spread northward to the northeastern Gulf Sunday night through Monday evening. Prior to these conditions arriving, strong NE winds will continue to develop over much of the eastern Gulf of Mexico through tonight as the gradient there tightens between low pressure associated with Irma and high pressure ridging to its NW and N. Expect seas to build to 8 to 10 ft over the eastern half of the Gulf on Saturday with increase of these winds. The seas over the eastern Gulf mainly east of 86W will increase further as Irma passes just E of the zones. Once Irma moves N of the region Monday evening, conditions across the eastern Gulf will improve. Thereafter, expect a weak pressure pattern and generally benign weather conditions over the Gulf basin Tuesday through Thursday. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... Major Hurricane Irma was centered near 22.8N 79.8W 941 mb at 11 AM EDT moving W at 8 kt, with maximum sustained winds 110 kt gusts to 135 kt. Irma is forecast to continue pull away from the coast of Cuba through tonight, reach nea 23.4N 80.7W early tonight, then turn NW across the western Straits of Florida near 24.5N 81.6W by early Sunday, and track northward over the Florida peninsula during the rest of Sunday and Sunday night. It will be accompanied by strong winds and very high seas to the waters around the central Bahamas, Straits of Florida, and surrounding waters through early on Sunday. Strong winds and seas nearing 8 ft will be possible just south of central Cuba as well as the Windward Passage through today as the system passes to the north. A persistent strong SW to W fetch of winds S of eastern and central Cuba will result in very large seas and battering waves along those portions of the coast of Cuba through at least Sunday evening. Farther east, Major Hurricane Jose was centered near 18.3N 61.3W 945 mb moving NW at 11 kt. Maximum sustained winds 125 kt gusts to 150 kt. Jose will approach the northern Leeward Islands this afternoon, then to near 19.4N 62.7W early tonight, with maximum sustained winds 115 kt gusts to 140 kt, and continue to weaken as it approaches near 20.9N 64.9W early Sunday with maximum sustained winds 105 kt gusts to 130 kt. Jose will continue to weaken as it nears 22.6N 66.9W early Sunday night with maximum sustained winds 100 kt gusts to 120 kt and to near 24.1N 68.3W early Monday with maximum sustained winds 95 kt gusts to 115 kt and to near 22.6N 66.9W with maximum sustained winds 100 kt gusts to 120 kt Monday evening and to near 24.1N 68.3W by early Tuesday with maximum sustained winds 95 kt gusts to 115 kt. Large swell are propagating through the waters near the Leeward Islands in advance of Jose, with the large seas shifting north of the area late Sunday as Jose moves N of the region. Wave heights will peak near 43 ft associated with Jose through this evening, before subsiding to 30 to 40 ft on Sunday as Jose slowly weakens. Elsewhere, a weak pressure pattern due to the storms to the N will continue to promote gentle to moderate winds over the central and southern Caribbean through early next week. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... Major Hurricane Irma was centered near near 22.8N 79.8W 941 mb at 11 AM EDT moving W at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds 110 kt gusts 135 kt. Irma will continue to move across the Straits of Florida through this afternoon reaching 23.4N 80.7W early tonight, then turn NW into the Gulf of Mexico to near 24.5N 81.6W by early Sunday, and track northward over the Florida peninsula during the rest of Sunday and Sunday night, reaching near 29.0N 82.8 by early Monday morning, before continuing northward into Georgia while weakening to a tropical storm Tuesday. Irma is bringing strong winds and very high seas to the waters around the central Bahamas, Straits of Florida, and surrounding waters through early on Sunday. Large swell will also affect waters north of the Bahamas through Tuesday. Extremely large seas topping off to the upper 40s and possibly an impressive max of around 50 ft and maybe even higher per latest NWPS TAFB guidance This is part of a larger area of 12 ft seas north of Irma, with the 12 ft radii in the NE quadrant extending out to about 420 nm. E to SE swell to the NE of Irma are propagating well out ahead of the main wind field, and extend to near 30N, west of 75W, reaching the Florida coast, and the SE U.S. coast. As Irma makes its turn to the north later today, wave heights will build between the Bahamas and the Florida Keys to near 50 ft near the storm center. As Irma weakens over land, these peak wave heights will decrease, with anticipated peak wave heights of about 20 ft offshore central and northern Florida Sunday night through early Monday. For more on Hurricane Irma, see hurricanes.gov. Farther east, Major Hurricane Jose was centered near centered near 18.3N 61.3W 945 mb moving NW at 11 kt. Maximum sustained winds 125 kt gusts to 150 kt. Jose will approach the northern Leeward Islands this afternoon, then to near 19.4N 62.7W early tonight, with maximum sustained winds 115 kt gusts to 140 kt, and continue to weaken as it approaches near 20.9N 64.9W early Sunday with maximum sustained winds 100 kt gusts to 120 kt and to near 24.1N 68.3W early Monday with maximum sustained winds 95 kt gusts to 115 kt and to near 22.6N 66.9W with maximum sustained winds 100 kt gusts to 120 kt Monday evening and to near 24.1N 68.3W by early Tuesday with maximum sustained winds 95 kt gusts to 115 kt. Jose is still on track to stay to the E of the Bahamas through the forecast period with peak wave heights near 30 to 40 ft as it tracks over these waters. Beyond Monday, it now appears that Jose will move in a general eastward track will gradually weakening. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ015...NE GULF N OF 25N E OF 87W... Tropical Storm Warning tonight. Hurricane Warning Sun. Tropical Storm Warning Sun night into Mon. .GMZ021...E GULF FROM 22N TO 25N E OF 87W INCLUDING STRAITS OF FLORIDA... Hurricane Warning today into tonight. Tropical Storm Warning Sun into Sun night. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ013...CARIBBEAN N OF 18N BETWEEN 76W AND 85W INCLUDING CAYMAN BASIN... Tropical Storm Warning into tonight. .AMZ025...OFFSHORE WATERS LEEWARD ISLANDS... Hurricane Warning today. Tropical Storm Warning tonight. .AMZ027...TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 15N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 60W... Tropical Storm Warning today. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... Tropical Storm Warning Sun night into Mon. .AMZ117...BAHAMAS INCLUDING CAY SAL BANK... Hurricane Warning into tonight. Tropical Storm Warning Sun. .AMZ121...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... Hurricane Warning Sun into Sun night. Tropical Storm Warning Mon. .AMZ125...ATLANTIC S OF 22N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W INCLUDING PUERTO RICO TRENCH... Tropical Storm Warning tonight. Hurricane Warning Sun. Tropical Storm Warning Sun night. .AMZ127...ATLANTIC FROM 19N TO 22N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... Tropical Storm Warning today. Hurricane Warning tonight into Sun. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Aguirre. National Hurricane Center.